Hurricane FABIAN

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HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2003

THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CENTRAL PRESSURE THAN
ON THE PREVIOUS MISSION AND...BASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL AND DROPSONDE
WINDS...THE INTENSITY IS DOWN A BIT...TO 120 KT.  THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY
OF VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE.  WE SEE LITTLE
EVIDENCE OF ANYTHING IN THE ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING...SO ANY CHANGES IN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO SHOULD BE THE RESULT OF INTERNAL DYNAMICS.  SINCE THESE
ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MERELY MAINTAINS
THE CURRENT STRENGTH FOR A WHILE AND THEN SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING
DUE TO COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

LATEST FIXES FROM AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE INDICATE A LITTLE MORE
NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...WHICH HAS BEEN EXPECTED.  THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  A LARGE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WITHIN 72 HOURS...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF FABIAN.  THE HURRICANE
SHOULD BE GUIDED BY THE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND...LATE IN THE PERIOD...BEGIN TO ACCELERATE IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH.  THIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS 
THE LATEST U.K. MET AND GFS FORECASTS.

ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS OF
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS/WAVES FROM
FABIAN SHOULD IMPACT THESE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
 
FORECASTER PASCH/RHOME
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0900Z 19.8N  59.7W   120 KT
 12HR VT     02/1800Z 20.4N  61.1W   120 KT
 24HR VT     03/0600Z 21.5N  63.0W   120 KT
 36HR VT     03/1800Z 23.0N  64.3W   120 KT
 48HR VT     04/0600Z 24.5N  65.2W   115 KT
 72HR VT     05/0600Z 28.0N  67.0W   105 KT
 96HR VT     06/0600Z 33.5N  67.5W    95 KT
120HR VT     07/0600Z 41.0N  64.0W    85 KT
 
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