Tropical Storm FABIAN

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TROPICAL STORM FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2003
 
THE SYSTEM'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE DAY.  BANDING FEATURES ARE MORE PROMINENT ON THE VISIBLE
IMAGES AND CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS INCREASED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 35 KT FROM AFWA.  INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET CONSERVATIVELY AT 40 KT.  IT IS INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE PASSED NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF A
DATA BUOY AND THAT PLATFORM REPORTED ONLY ABOUT 10 KT WINDS. 
ALTHOUGH THIS OBSERVATION SEEMS TOO LOW...IT IS ROUGHLY CONSISTENT
WITH AN EARLIER SEAWINDS SCATTEROMETER PASS.  THIS IS ALSO WHAT
WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR A STORM MOVING SO RAPIDLY WESTWARD.  THE
STORM HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS...SST AND SHEAR...FAVOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.

THE MOTION CONTINUES TO BE QUICKLY WESTWARD...275/19.  THERE IS A
STRONG DEEP LAYER MEAN HIGH PRESSURE AREA SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF
FABIAN.  THIS STEERING REGIME IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS ON A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...WHICH IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.  THE PREDICTED DECELERATION MAY BE DUE TO A SLIGHT
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY A DISTURBANCE NEAR 24N49W. 
OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO APPARENT REASONS FOR A SIGNIFICANT
NORTHWARD EXCURSION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE NHC FORECAST
TRACK IS ALONG THE SAME TRAJECTORY BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE.  IT IS ALSO ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MODEL
SUITE.

THE 4-5 DAY FORECAST POINTS IMPLY A TRACK JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES...BUT THERE ARE LARGE AVERAGE ERRORS AT THESE TIME
RANGES.  IT IS WAY...WAY...TOO EARLY TO SPECIFY WHETHER FABIAN WILL
POSE A THREAT TO LAND AREAS FARTHER WEST. 
  
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/2100Z 15.2N  39.2W    40 KT
 12HR VT     29/0600Z 15.7N  41.4W    45 KT
 24HR VT     29/1800Z 16.2N  44.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     30/0600Z 16.8N  46.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     30/1800Z 17.4N  49.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     31/1800Z 18.5N  53.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     01/1800Z 19.5N  58.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     02/1800Z 20.5N  62.5W    70 KT
 
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