Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression NINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2003
 
THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DEVELOPED
CONVECTION...BANDING FEATURES...AFTER BEING DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEST WIND FROM A
SHIP SOUTH OF THE CENTER SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A
POORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...IT IS ASSUMED THAT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND ONLY THE INTERACTION WITH THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA COULD HINDER 
INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL
MODEL. AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST...THIS RAPID ORGANIZATION TREND CAN
BE EASILY REVERSED AS IT OCCURED LAST NIGHT.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING 295 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WOULD FAVOR A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFDL AND GFS MODELS WHICH BRING WHATEVER SYSTEM IS THERE...OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...JUST TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.  
 
FORECASTER AVILA
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 14.7N  66.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 15.5N  67.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 16.5N  70.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 17.5N  72.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 19.0N  74.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 21.5N  76.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     25/1800Z 24.0N  78.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     26/1800Z 26.0N  79.0W    60 KT
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC