ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2003 LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN CLAUDETTE. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE MEASURED. WATER VAPOR IMAGES HAVE BEEN SHOWING UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLY OR SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER CLAUDETTES CENTER AND DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM IV RECON...MEASURED FRIDAY AFTERNOON ...CONFIRMED THAT THESE WINDS ARE IN THE 300 TO 250 MB LEVEL. JUST ABOVE THIS LEVEL...AT 200 MB...THE DATA SHOWED GOOD ANTI-CYCLONIC OUTFLOW. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST TWO MORE DAYS AND THEN CHANGE BEFORE LANDFALL ON DAY 3. IF THIS CHANGE DOES OCCUR THE SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP QUICKLY. SO I AM STILL CALLING FOR A MINIMAL HURRICANE NEAR LANDFALL. RECENTLY...THE RECON MEASURED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 51 KTS AND A 1007 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE. ALSO...SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE AT 45 KTS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 45 KTS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/12. THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODELS IS A GRADUAL SLOWING DOWN AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 23.6N 90.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 24.5N 91.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 25.2N 92.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 25.7N 93.9W 50 KT 48HR VT 14/0600Z 26.0N 95.1W 55 KT 72HR VT 15/0600Z 26.0N 97.1W 65 KT...LANDFALL 96HR VT 16/0600Z 26.0N 99.4W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 17/0600Z 26.0N 102.6W 20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC