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Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2003
 
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN CLAUDETTE.  SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE MEASURED.

WATER VAPOR IMAGES HAVE BEEN SHOWING UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLY OR
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER CLAUDETTES CENTER AND DATA FROM THE
NOAA GULFSTREAM IV RECON...MEASURED FRIDAY AFTERNOON ...CONFIRMED
THAT THESE WINDS ARE IN THE 300 TO 250 MB LEVEL.  JUST ABOVE THIS
LEVEL...AT 200 MB...THE DATA SHOWED GOOD ANTI-CYCLONIC OUTFLOW. 
THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR AT
LEAST TWO MORE DAYS AND THEN CHANGE BEFORE LANDFALL ON DAY 3.  IF
THIS CHANGE DOES OCCUR THE SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP QUICKLY.  SO I AM
STILL CALLING FOR A MINIMAL HURRICANE NEAR LANDFALL.

RECENTLY...THE RECON MEASURED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 51 KTS
AND A 1007 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE.  ALSO...SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE AT
45 KTS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL REMAIN AT 45 KTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/12. THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODELS IS A
GRADUAL SLOWING DOWN AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/0900Z 23.6N  90.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     12/1800Z 24.5N  91.6W    45 KT
 24HR VT     13/0600Z 25.2N  92.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     13/1800Z 25.7N  93.9W    50 KT
 48HR VT     14/0600Z 26.0N  95.1W    55 KT
 72HR VT     15/0600Z 26.0N  97.1W    65 KT...LANDFALL
 96HR VT     16/0600Z 26.0N  99.4W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     17/0600Z 26.0N 102.6W    20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC