ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003 THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAS A MESS OF CONFLICTING SIGNALS TODAY. ON ONE SIDE...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE WAS THAT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL STORM...WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AS HIGH AS 45 KT FROM TAFB. ON THE OTHER SIDE...THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...WHICH MADE SEVERAL PASSES THROUGH THE APPARENT CENTER AND FOUND NO CLOSED CIRCULATION. JUST AS THE PLANE WAS LEAVING THE AREA AT 18Z IT FOUND 20 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS... INDICATING A POORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND PRESSURES OF 1006-1007 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE WAVE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE. THE 45 KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 57 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY RAPID 280/25. CLAUDETTE IS SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND SHOULD CONTINUE IN A FAST EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW FOR ANOTHER 24 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE STORM WILL APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AFTER 48 HR AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U. S.. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS BY FORECASTING A RAPID WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 48 HR...FOLLOWED BY DECELERATION AND A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. ONE POSSIBILITY TO BE WATCHED IS THAT THE TROUGH COULD TURN CLAUDETTE MORE NORTHWARD THAN FORECAST. HOWEVER... CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT CLAUDETTE WILL BE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN 72-96 HR...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD MOTION. CLAUDETTE CURRENTLY SHOWS GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS...AND AS LONG AS IT DOES NOT RUN UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE CENTER REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AFTER SOME WEAKENING OVER LAND...THE SYSTEM SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE WIND RADII ARE FAIRLY SMALL...OTHER NEAR-GALE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AWAY FROM CLAUDETTE. PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER AND THE WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/2100Z 15.0N 71.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 09/0600Z 15.8N 74.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 09/1800Z 16.9N 79.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 10/0600Z 18.0N 82.7W 60 KT 48HR VT 10/1800Z 19.3N 86.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 11/1800Z 21.0N 90.0W 45 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 12/1800Z 22.5N 92.5W 50 KT...OVER WATER 120HR VT 13/1800Z 24.0N 94.5W 55 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC