Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE

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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003
 
THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAS A MESS OF
CONFLICTING SIGNALS TODAY.  ON ONE SIDE...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE
WAS THAT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL STORM...WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AS HIGH AS 45 KT FROM TAFB.  ON THE OTHER SIDE...THE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...WHICH MADE SEVERAL PASSES THROUGH THE
APPARENT CENTER AND FOUND NO CLOSED CIRCULATION.  JUST AS THE PLANE
WAS LEAVING THE AREA AT 18Z IT FOUND 20 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...
INDICATING A POORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND PRESSURES OF
1006-1007 MB.  BASED ON THIS...THE WAVE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE.  THE 45 KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A
57 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY RAPID 280/25.  CLAUDETTE IS SOUTH OF A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND SHOULD CONTINUE IN A FAST EAST TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW FOR ANOTHER 24 HR OR SO.  AFTER THAT...THE
STORM WILL APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL WEAKEN
FURTHER AFTER 48 HR AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN U. S..  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS BY FORECASTING
A RAPID WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 48 HR...FOLLOWED BY
DECELERATION AND A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK.  ONE POSSIBILITY TO BE
WATCHED IS THAT THE TROUGH COULD TURN CLAUDETTE MORE NORTHWARD THAN
FORECAST.  HOWEVER... CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT CLAUDETTE WILL BE
WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN 72-96 HR...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A SLOWER
AND MORE WESTWARD MOTION.

CLAUDETTE CURRENTLY SHOWS GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN ALL
DIRECTIONS...AND AS LONG AS IT DOES NOT RUN UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW TO THE WEST IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.  LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL
THE CENTER REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  AFTER SOME WEAKENING
OVER LAND...THE SYSTEM SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO.

WHILE THE WIND RADII ARE FAIRLY SMALL...OTHER NEAR-GALE WINDS
CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AWAY FROM
CLAUDETTE.  PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION
CENTER AND THE WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/2100Z 15.0N  71.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     09/0600Z 15.8N  74.8W    50 KT
 24HR VT     09/1800Z 16.9N  79.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     10/0600Z 18.0N  82.7W    60 KT
 48HR VT     10/1800Z 19.3N  86.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     11/1800Z 21.0N  90.0W    45 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     12/1800Z 22.5N  92.5W    50 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT     13/1800Z 24.0N  94.5W    55 KT
 
 
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