ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2003 THE MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS IS BELIEVED TO BE A TEMPORARY WOBBLE AS THE CENTER LOOKED RATHER COMPLEX AS VIEWED BY RADAR AND SATELLITE. A 020/9 MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT ABOUT A TURN TOWARD THE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERLIES. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS BILL DISSIPATING OVER TENNESSEE BY 96 HOURS WHILE SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE BRING THE LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONCENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE BUT DISSIPATES BILL AFTER 72 HOURS. THE CENTER IS AT THE COAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM TERREBONE BAY INCLUDE A 997 MB PRESSURE AND SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 50 KNOTS. WINDS OVER THE WATER WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 35 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...WHILE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE STORM MOVES FURTHER INLAND. ASIDE FROM WINDS AND SURGE AT THE COAST...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A SERIOUS THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA... AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 29.5N 90.8W 50 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 30.8N 90.4W 40 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 01/1800Z 32.9N 89.1W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 02/0600Z 34.8N 86.8W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 02/1800Z 36.0N 84.4W 20 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 03/1800Z 37.5N 79.0W 20 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 04/1800Z...INLAND NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC