Tropical Storm BILL

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TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2003
 
THE MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS.  THIS IS BELIEVED TO BE A TEMPORARY WOBBLE AS THE CENTER
LOOKED RATHER COMPLEX AS VIEWED BY RADAR AND SATELLITE.  A 020/9
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY.  THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
AGREEMENT ABOUT A TURN TOWARD THE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERLIES.  THE GFS MODEL SHOWS BILL
DISSIPATING OVER TENNESSEE BY 96 HOURS WHILE SOME OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE BRING THE LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS A CONCENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE BUT DISSIPATES BILL AFTER 72
HOURS.
 
THE CENTER IS AT THE COAST.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM TERREBONE BAY
INCLUDE A 997 MB PRESSURE AND SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 50 KNOTS.
WINDS OVER THE WATER WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 35 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS...WHILE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
THE STORM MOVES FURTHER INLAND.
 
ASIDE FROM WINDS AND SURGE AT THE COAST...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
SERIOUS THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...
AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/2100Z 29.5N  90.8W    50 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 30.8N  90.4W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 32.9N  89.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 34.8N  86.8W    25 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 36.0N  84.4W    20 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     03/1800Z 37.5N  79.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     04/1800Z...INLAND
 
 
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