Tropical Storm ANA

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SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON APR 21 2003
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 105/14.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN
ACCELERATING EAST TO EAST NORTH-EASTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
IS SHIFTED A LITTLE LEFT AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.0 FROM TAFB AND ST2.5 FROM SAB.  A
1023Z QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SHOWED 35 KT WIND SPEEDS NORTHWEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 35
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SHEAR
WEAKENING THE STORM OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVELY 
AS EARLIER.  THE STORM APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN COMPLETELY SEPARATED 
FROM THE LARGER CLOUD SYSTEM THAT IT WAS EARLIER CONNECTED TO...AND 
IT HAS BEEN SUGGESTED THAT ANA HAS BECOME TROPICAL.  THE DEMARCATION 
BETWEEN TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL IS A BIT MURKY AND I WILL LEAVE ANA 
AS SUBTROPICAL FOR THE TIME BEING.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/2100Z 29.4N  62.4W    35 KTS
12HR VT     22/0600Z 29.4N  59.9W    30 KTS
24HR VT     22/1800Z 29.7N  56.6W    30 KTS
36HR VT     23/0600Z 30.4N  53.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     23/1800Z 31.0N  49.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     24/1800Z 32.0N  42.0W    25 KTS
 
 
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