Tropical Storm ANA

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SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON APR 21 2003
 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ANA HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT.  IN
FACT...AT THE MOMENT...THE SYSTEM IS PROBABLY TO WEAK TO CLASSIFY.
A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS RETAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY.  STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE...WHICH
SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.  IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...ANA COULD DISSIPATE MUCH SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION...120/9...IS TO THE RIGHT OF THAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ANA IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A BROAD
MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT WITH
TIME...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE NOGAPS IS SOMEWHAT
FASTER.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0900Z 30.4N  65.2W    35 KTS
12HR VT     21/1800Z 29.8N  63.8W    35 KTS
24HR VT     22/0600Z 29.2N  61.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     22/1800Z 29.2N  58.5W    30 KTS
48HR VT     23/0600Z 29.5N  55.5W    30 KTS
72HR VT     24/0600Z 30.0N  49.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
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