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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



795 
AXPZ20 KNHC 152139
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Oct 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build 
across the Gulf of Mexico as a cold front pushes across the
basin. This will bring fresh to strong northerly winds beginning 
16/1200 UTC across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will increase 
to gale force by Sun at 0000 UTC and continue through early Mon.
Seas are expected to build to 8 to 11 ft downwind of the gale 
force winds. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at 
http://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 89W and N of 06N, moving W at 10 to 15 
kt. Scattered showers are noted from 06N to 12N between 87W and 
90W.

Another tropical wave extends its axis along 107W from 06N to 
17N, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 104W and 110W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
09N84W to 11N103W to 09N140W. Aside from the convection 
associated with the tropical waves discussed in the section 
above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N 
and E of 110W, and from 10N to 13N and W of 128W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for more information on the 
gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Latest scatterometer data depicted fresh northerly winds over 
the northern half of the Gulf of California. Light to gentle NW 
winds prevail elsewhere along the Mexican coast. Seas average
between 4 to 6 ft across the Mexico offshores, with seas 2 to 4 
ft occurring in the Gulf of California. 

Fresh northerly winds over the northern Gulf of California will 
continue through Sat afternoon. High pressure will build south 
across the western Gulf of Mexico in the wake of a cold front Sat
night into Sun. This will bring strong to near gale force gap 
winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Sat morning 
and pulse to gale force Sat night through Sun night. Gentle 
winds are expected to prevail elsewhere through early next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light N winds prevail N of the monsoon trough with gentle to 
moderate SW winds ongoing to the S. Scattered thunderstorms are
moving off the coasts of El Salvador and Nicaragua. Farther
south, scattered thunderstorms are also noted across the coasts 
of Costa Rica and Panama. Seas are 4 to 6 ft due to a moderate 
southwest swell.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will continue to prevail
N of the monsoon trough with moderate SW winds to the S of the 
monsoon trough through the weekend. Seas will average 4 to 6 ft 
in SW swell. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue
across the region through Sat night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail over areas N of the monsoon 
trough and W of 120W, with gentle to moderate winds south of the
monsoon trough. Seas are 8 to 9 ft. Conditions in most of this 
area will gradually improve through tonight. Swell from a 
weakening frontal trough will continue bringing 8 to 9 ft seas 
through tonight near the area N of 26N between 125W and 135W. An 
area of 8 to 9 ft swell will also develop from 04N to 07N between
109W and 116W tonight and continue through Sat night. Elsewhere,
moderate winds and seas in the 5 to 7 ft range will prevail.

$$
ERA


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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Oct-2021 21:39:33 UTC