594 
AXPZ20 KNHC 070203
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jul 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Central East Pacific (EP96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms persist in association
with an area of low pressure located about 500 miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system could
still become a short-lived tropical depression before it moves
westward into unfavorable environmental conditions on Monday. 
There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the
next two days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather 
Outlook at wwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W north of 05N, moving 
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 111W from 06N to 20N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Low pressure of 1009 mb is along the 
wave axis near 16N. Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on
this feature. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N102W to 16N111W to
09N120W. The ITCZ continues from 09N120W to 08N130W to beyond 
08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
noted from 03N to 12N between 85W and 105W, from 10N to 18N
between 105W and 116W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 08N to 10N between 106W and 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on the 
potential for tropical cyclone development well off the southwest
coast of Mexico. 

Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the open forecast waters W
of 105W, reaching fresh speeds off SW Mexico. Seas of 5-7 ft are
noted over the open waters off Mexico. Light to gentle winds, 
and seas of 5-6 ft are over the waters E of 105W. Over the Gulf 
of California, light to gentle winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds over the waters near 
the Revillagigedo Islands will gradually diminish through Mon as 
an area of low pressure located about 400 nm south of the 
southern tip of Baja California continues west-northwestward. 
This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation 
within the next two days. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure 
could form several hundred nautical miles offshore of 
southwestern Mexico late this week. Some gradual development of 
this system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds are noted over and downstream of the 
Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere N of 
the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds S of the 
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range, except to the 
south and southwest of the Galapagos Islands where seas are 
reaching 7 ft. 

For the forecast, moderate E winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Papagayo through Mon, then begin to pulse at fresh speeds at 
night and into the early afternoons through Wed. Otherwise, 
gentle to moderate winds will prevail. Moderate seas in south to
southwest swell will prevail over the regional waters during the
period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected

High pressure prevails over the waters north of 20N. Moderate to
fresh winds are found north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Gentle 
to moderate winds are south of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Seas of 
5 to 7 ft prevail, with slightly higher seas of 6 to 8 ft just N
of the ITCZ and W of 130W as well as parts of the north central
waters.  

For the forecast, little change in winds and seas are anticipated
over the next few days. Cross equatorial southerly swell will
move into the waters S of 05N and W of 100W the middle to end of
the week. 

$$
AL