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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040910
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
620 UTC Tue Aug 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 116W from 02N to 17N, moving 
westward at about 15 kt. A 1012 mb low pressure is along the wave
axis near 12N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
ahead of the wave axis from 11N to 14N between 117W and 120W. The
wave is well depicted in the moisture product and 700 streamline
analysis.

A tropical wave is along 125W from 02N to 18N, moving westward 
at 15 kt. This wave remains embedded within a moist and unstable
environment. Isolated moderate convection is from 09N to 13N 
between 120W and 130W. 

A tropical wave has its axis along 138W from 02N to 17N, moving 
westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
where the wave meets the ITCZ from 08N to 10N between 135W and 
140W. The wave shows up well in the moisture product and 700 
streamline analysis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia near 
09N74W to 10N95W to 1012 mb low pressure located near 12N116 to 
13N124W to 10N134W. The ITCZ continues from 10N134W to beyond 
09N140W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is within 
about 140 nm from the coast of El Salvador and Guatemala between 
88W and 92W. Similar convection is also noted from 08N to 10N 
between 92W and 96W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
can be found in the entrance to the Gulf of Panama, and from 05N
to 07N between 81W and 83W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1030 mb high pressure will begin to dominate the northern 
forecast waters today, bringing some increase in winds and seas 
across the offshore waters of Baja California. The pressure 
gradient between this system and a meandering trough over the 
Baja California Peninsula will support moderate to fresh NW to N 
winds W of Baja California, and mainly N of Cabo San Lazaro, Wed 
night through Sat night, with seas building to 6-8 ft. The ridge 
associated with this high pressure will reach the Revillagigedo 
Islands. 

During this time of the year, the prevailing winds in the Gulf 
of California are mainly southeast in direction. Gentle to 
moderate southeast to south winds are expected in the northern 
and central parts of the Gulf well into the middle part of the 
week, while mainly gentle southeast to south winds are forecast 
elsewhere, including the entrance to the Gulf. Seas will range 
from 3-4 ft, except up to 5 ft near the entrance to the Gulf.

A recent scatterometer pass provided observations of northerly 
winds in the 20-25 kt range across the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  
This weather pattern will persist across the Tehuantepec region 
through Thu, but mainly during the overnight and early morning 
hours with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. Seas
will briefly build to 8 ft. Winds are expected to increase again
across this area during the upcoming weekend. Marine guidance 
suggests stronger winds and higher seas. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

A monsoon trough axis stretches roughly along 09N to 10N east of
about 100W. Recent scatterometer data show mainly moderate south
to southwest winds to the south of the monsoon trough, and light
westerly winds to the north of the monsoon trough.

As it is normal for this time of the year, tropical waves will 
continue to migrate westward across Central America into the
eastern Pacific region, helping to induce some convective 
activity across the area. Currently, three tropical waves are
moving westward to the west of 110W. Another tropical wave is 
forecast to move into the far eastern part of the area near 85W 
by Wed and reach to near 91W on Thu. Global model guidance 
suggests that this wave may have potential for tropical cyclone 
development across the eastern Pacific several days from today.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

As previously mentioned, a 1030 mb high pressure will begin to
dominate the northern forecast waters today. Moderate to fresh 
trade winds are expected along the southern periphery of the 
ridge, mainly to the west of 130W.

Long period southerly swell, with seas of 7-8 ft, is forecast to 
reach the equator and the offshore waters of the Galapagos 
Islands on Fri.

$$
GR

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 04-Aug-2020 09:10:35 UTC