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Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 190235
TCDEP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

A 2239Z SSMI/S microwave image indicated that a small mid-level
circulation remained, but Carlotta's low-level circulation was
either very small and indistinct, or it was located along the coast
of Mexico.  For this, the final advisory, it is assumed that the
low-level center is beneath the remnant mid-level circulation. The
upper-level circulation noted in hi-res GOES-16 visible imagery has
continued to move southwestward and decouple from the rest of the
circulation, and what little convection that does exist is rather
amorphous-looking and disorganized.  Based on the disheveled
appearance of the system, Carlotta is considered to be a remnant low
pressure system with 20-kt winds.

The initial motion estimate is 315/03 kt.  Steering currents are
weak and the shallow nature of the tiny cyclone should prevent
Carlotta's remnant circulation from moving inland over the high
mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico. As a result, the system
is forecast to drift northwestward and skirt the coast of Mexico
for the next 12-24 hours until dissipation or absorption into the
monsoon trough occurs some time on Tuesday.

Although there could be some intermittent short-lived bursts of
convection, proximity to land, modest northerly vertical wind
shear, and dry mid-level air should prevent the remnant low from
regenerating into a tropical cyclone.

Although Carlotta is no longer a tropical cyclone, an abundance of
tropical moisture flowing inland from the Pacific is expected to
produce heavy rains, along with life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides over southern portions of the states of Guerrero,
Michoacan, and Colima for the next couple of days.  Consult products
issued by the Mexican meteorological service for more information.

This is the last advisory on Carlotta issued by the National
Hurricane Center.  For additional information on the remnant low...
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 18.2N 103.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  19/1200Z 18.4N 104.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 19-Jun-2018 02:35:28 UTC