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Hurricane Lane Forecast Discussion


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831 
WTPZ44 KNHC 182033
TCDEP4

Hurricane Lane Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
200 PM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018

Lane remains an impressive hurricane in geostationary satellite
imagery.  The distinct 15 nmi-wide eye is surrounded by a ring
of convection with clouds tops around -65 to -70C.  The clouds
tops have warmed slightly but the subjective and objective Dvorak
Current Intensity (CI) numbers are unchanged so the initial
intensity is maintained at 120 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane continues moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt.
A large subtropical ridge to the north of Lane should keep the
hurricane on a west-northwestward to westward heading during the
next 24 hours.  After that time, the ridge is forecast to build
westward which is expected to take Lane on a more westward course
between 36 and 72 hours.  By day 4, Lane will be approaching the
western portion of the ridge which should result in a turn back
toward the west-northwest.   The lastest iterations of the UKMET
and GFS models have shifted southward but remain along the northern
side of the guidance envelope.  Meanwhile, the ECMWF remains along
the southern side of the guidance and also depicts a much faster
forward speed.  The updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted
slightly southward to be near the latest consensus aids.

The intensity forecast reasoning is unchanged from the previous
advisory.  Lane will be moving over SSTs of 27-28 degrees Celsius
throughout the forecast period, but some west to northwesterly
vertical shear is expected to affect the hurricane.  As a result,
gradually weakening is indicated in the official forecast over the
next few days.  A more significant increase in shear late in the
forecast period could result in a faster rate of weakening at days
4 and 5.   The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper-end of the
guidance during the first 24 to 48 hours, and then is closest to
the HFIP corrected consensus later in the period.

Lane will move into the Central Pacific Basin very soon and this is
last NHC advisory on this system.  Future information on Lane can be
found in advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
beginning at 5 PM HST (0300 UTC), under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP2, WMO
header WTPA32 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc .


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 12.5N 139.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 12.9N 141.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 13.4N 143.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 13.7N 145.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 13.9N 147.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  21/1800Z 14.1N 151.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  22/1800Z 14.8N 154.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  23/1800Z 15.9N 158.2W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown/Latto