Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Forecast Discussion (Text)

Home   Public Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  

WTPZ43 KNHC 192039

Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182019
200 PM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Deep convection has not returned, now being absent for at least 12
hours.  The environment around Octave is dry and stable, and it is
unlikely that significant convection will come back any time soon.
Octave has therefore become a remnant low, and its maximum winds are
estimated to be 30 kt based on recent scatterometer data.  The
remnant low is expected to linger for at least the next 5 days with
its intensity holding steady or decreasing due to moderate
southeasterly shear and mid-level relative humidities of 30-40

The initial motion remains very slowly east-northeastward, or 070/2
kt.  The remnant low is trapped in a weak steering regime, and it
is expected to meander for the next 5 days, only moving a net
distance of 50-100 n mi during that period.  A slight westward
adjustment was made to this last NHC official forecast to account
for the latest multi-model consensus aids and the ECMWF, which lies
along the western edge of the guidance envelope.


INIT  19/2100Z 11.6N 125.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  20/0600Z 11.4N 125.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  20/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  21/0600Z 10.8N 125.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/1800Z 10.9N 125.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/1800Z 11.7N 125.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/1800Z 12.4N 125.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/1800Z 12.0N 124.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Berg

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 19-Oct-2019 20:39:51 UTC