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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion


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318 
WTPZ43 KNHC 180847
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
200 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Kiko is trying to recover from all of the shear that affected it
for the past few days. An earlier microwave pass showed that most of
the convection was confined to the southern semicircle. Over the
past few hours, deep convection has been looking a little more
organized near the storm's center. Whether or not this is the start
of a trend is too early to tell, and a blend of the subjective and
objective intensity estimates indicate that the initial intensity
remains near 45 kt.

Kiko continues to move southwest, or 240/04 kt. There is no change
to the forecast track philosophy. Kiko will be steered in a mean
westerly trajectory for the next several days by mid-level ridging
to the north of the cyclone. Some northward or southward deviations
in the forward motion are expected from time to time due to
fluctuations in the strength of the ridge. The official forecast is
very close to the previous one, and near the multi-model track
consensus aids.

Kiko is expected to remain in a low shear environment and will soon
will be moving over higher oceanic heat content. This should result
in gradual strengthening. In a few days, the cyclone will begin to
move into a drier and more stable environment which should limit
any further intensification during the forecast period. The latest
forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, and is near
the corrected consensus HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 16.5N 125.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 16.2N 126.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 16.1N 127.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 16.3N 128.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  20/0600Z 16.6N 129.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  21/0600Z 17.2N 130.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  22/0600Z 16.7N 132.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  23/0600Z 16.0N 135.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto