Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

932 
AXPZ20 KNHC 310949
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Aug 31 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0940 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Karina is centered near 17.2N 124.4W at 31/0900 UTC,
moving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 942
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. 
Peak seas are around 28 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered 
strong convection is noted from 14N to 20N between 120W and 
128W. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast to begin on 
Tuesday. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible on 
Monday, followed by fluctuations in intensity through the middle 
part of this week. Swells generated by Karina will affect 
portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California
Peninsula for the next couple of days and will likely spread 
northward to southern California on Monday through midweek. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather 
office. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Karina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located well offshore of southwestern Mexico remain
disorganized. Numerous to scattered moderate to strong convection
is from 04N to 15N between 101W and 118W. However, environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a 
tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of
days while the system continues to move west- northwestward to 
northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. This system has a high chance of 
tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and also through 7 
days. Regardless of development, gale- force winds will be likely
for the Revillagigedo Islands, the outer Baja California Sur 
offshores S of Cabo San Lazaro as well as the Baja California 
offshore adjacent waters Tue night through late Fri. Refer to the
latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for 
more details.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 92W north of 05N, moving 
west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 
noted N of 03N between 88W and 98W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N100W to 14N116W,
then resumes SW of Karina near 12N130W to 11N139W. In addition 
to the convection associated with Karina, Invest EP95 and the 
tropical wave, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 
is evident N of 03N E of 88W, and from 00N to 10N W of 120W.  

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on 
Invest EP95.

Moderate to fresh N gap winds are now blowing across Tehuantepec
region and downwind to near 14N. Moderate to fresh southerly 
winds and slight seas dominate the Gulf of California, except the
central part of the Gulf where fresh to strong winds are noted. 
Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are present elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas 
associated with Invest EP95 are forecast to affect the outer SW 
Mexican offshores W of 101W today through Wed, with these 
conditions shiftting to the Baja California Sur offshores the 
remainder forecast period. Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical 
depression is expected to form within the next couple of days 
while the system continues to move west-northwestward to 
northwestward. Regardless of development, gale-force winds will 
be likely for the Revillagigedo Islands and the outer Baja 
California Sur offshores S of Cabo San Lazaro Tue night through 
late Fri.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo and 
downwind to near 11N88W, with 5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds
and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E gap winds 
will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through Fri 
night. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are 
forecast elsewhere through the forecast period. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information
about Hurricane Karina, and Invest EP95.

Hurricane Karina is near 17.2N 124.4W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving
west at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 125 kt with gusts to
150 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 942 mb. Elsewhere, 
mainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the 
open waters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from 
Karina, EP95 and the aforementioned trough. Rough seas generated 
by Karina cover the waters from 11N to 24N between 115W and 128W.
Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the open 
waters.

For the forecast, Karina will move to 17.4N 125.8W this 
afternoon, 17.7N 127.6W Tue morning, 18.1N 129.6W Tue afternoon, 
18.6N 131.7W Wed morning, 19.1N 133.6W Wed afternoon, and 19.4N 
135.7W Thu morning. Karina will change little in intensity as it 
moves near 20.0N 139.5W early Fri. Looking ahead, environmental 
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of EP95, and
a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple
of days while the system continues to move west-northwestward to
northwestward. Regardless of development, gale-force winds will 
be likely for the Revillagigedo Islands, the outer Baja 
California Sur offshores S of Cabo San Lazaro as well as the Baja
California offshore adjacent waters Tue night through late Fri.

$$
Ramos