Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

606 
AXPZ20 KNHC 251543
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Sep 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 17.1N 108.5W, or about 290
nm SW of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, at 25/1500 UTC, moving west at
10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 900 mb. Maximum 
sustained wind speed is 155 kt with gusts to 190 kt. Peak seas 
are currently around 44 ft (13.5 m). Polo is revealing a clear 
eye feature on satellite imagery. A solid ring of very cold cloud
top temperatures (colder than -75 degree Celsius surrounds the 
eye. Numerous strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the
center. Polo is forecast to maintain its present motion today, 
followed by a gradual turn to the northwest on Sat and north on 
Sun. A turn toward the northeast is expected on Monday. On the 
forecast track, Polo is expected to approach Baja California Sur 
on Mon. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible over
the next 12 to 24 hours. Weakening should begin by Sat. For a 
complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, 
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall 
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of 
southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will 
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and 
toward Baja California Sur today and into the weekend. These 
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, 
and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local 
weather office.

Hurricane Odalys is centered near 17.9N 123.7W at 25/1500 UTC,
moving north-northeast at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 946 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with
gusts to 140 kt. Peak seas are currently around 37 ft (11.5 m).
satellite imagery reveals that Odaly's eye has become much 
better defined during the overnight hours. Numerous strong
convection is noted within 90 nm of the center. Odalys is 
expected to turn to the north over the next couple of days. 
Odalys is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane 
Wind Scale. This intensity is expected to persist overnight, 
before gradual weakening is forecast heading into the weekend. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
  NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
  www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys.

Low pressure South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: An area of low 
pressure is expected to form within the next day or two to the 
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterward, environmental 
conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a 
tropical depression is expected to form late this weekend or 
early next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward 
to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and 
southwestern Mexico. There is a medium chance of tropical
formation within 48 hours and a high chance of tropical formation
through the next 7 days. 

Heavy Rainfall over Central America and Southern Mexico: Low
pressure will drift westward from the far western Caribbean into
Central America and adjacent southern Mexico through tonight,
leading to enhanced rainfall over the region into the weekend. 
Heavy rainfall is possible over portions of northwest Nicaragua, 
the mountains of Honduras and Guatemala, as well as portions of 
Chiapas and Oaxaca in Mexico, and will raise concerns for life- 
threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local 
weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather
Prediction Center for more information. As this low pressure 
moves into the eastern Pacific south of southern Mexico early 
next week, it has a potential for tropical development.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 1008 mb low pressure in  
northwest Colombia westward to across the southwestern Caribbean
Sea, to across northern Costa Rica, then to 10N85W to to 11.5N90.5W
and to 14N95W. It resumes SW of Odalys at 12N127W to 12N133W and 
to beyond 14N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 
from 06N to 10N between 88W-95W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 03N to 08N between 80W-88W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 08N to 11N between 135W-140W, and 
within 60 nm south of the trough between 129W-135W.
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
on Major Hurricane Polo, Hurricane Odalys located well to the 
west-southwest of the offshore waters, and on low pressure
forecast to develop south of the Gulf of Tehunatepec, that has
the potential for tropical development as early as this weekend.

Away from Polo, light to gentle winds dominate, Seas are 1 to 3 
ft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 7 ft over the remainder of
the waters away from Polo as indicated in overnight satellite
altimeter data passes.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 17.3N 
108.9W this afternoon, then begin to gradually weaken as it moves
to 17.6N 110.7W late tonight, to near 18.5N 112.2W Sat afternoon
with maximum sustained winds 120 kt gusts 145 kt, to near 20.0N 
113.2W late Sat night with maximum sustained winds 110 kt gusts 
135 kt, to near 21.7N 113.7W Sun afternoon, and to near 23.3N 
113.5W late Sun night with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 
115 kt. Polo is forecast to move to near 26.4N 111.2W late Mon 
night with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Hurricane 
Odalys is near 17.6N 124.0W, or about 850 nm west-southwest of the 
southern tip of Baja California at 2 AM PDT, and is moving northeast 
at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt, 
and the minimum central pressure is 962 mb. Odalys will move to near 
18.0N 123.7W this afternoon, to near 18.9N 123.5W late tonight with 
maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, to near 19.7N 123.5W Sat 
afternoon with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, then 
weaken to a tropical storm near 20.7N 123.5W late Sat night with 
maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Odalys is forecast to 
become post-tropical near 21.9N 123.1W Sun afternoon, and near 22.5N 
122.1W late Sun night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is 
expected to form within the next day or two to the south of the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec. Afterward, environmental conditions should be 
favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is 
expected to form late this weekend or early next week as the system 
moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the 
coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Hazardous marine 
conditions of very rough seas are expected over the Baja California 
waters this weekend into early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters north of 09N,
and mostly gentle to moderate south-soutwhest winds south of 
09N as seen in overnight available satellite scatterometer data 
passes. Locally rough seas are over the western offshore waters 
of Guatemala due to Major Hurricane Polo near southwestern 
Mexico. Otherwise, moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas 
nearshore Colombia and Panama, and in the lee of the Galapagos 
Islands. 

For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds expected to prevail 
across the offshore waters through the weekend, along with mainly
moderate seas. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Major Hurricane Polo, and on Hurricane Odalys located well to 
the west-southwest of the offshore waters.

Outside of Odalys and Polo, moderate or weaker winds dominate. Seas
are 4 to 7 ft in mixed swells away from Polo and Odalys.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is forecast to move near 
near 17.3N 108.9W this afternoon, then begin to gradually weaken
as it moves to 17.6N 110.7W late tonight, to near 18.5N 112.2W 
Sat afternoon with maximum sustained winds 120 kt gusts 145 kt, 
to near 20.0N 113.2W late Sat night with maximum sustained winds 
110 kt gusts 135 kt, to near 21.7N 113.7W Sun afternoon, and to 
near 23.3N 113.5W late Sun night with maximum sustained winds 95 
kt gusts 115 kt. Polo is forecast to move to near 26.4N 111.2W 
late Mon night with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt.

Hurricane Odalys is forecast to move to near 18.0N 123.7W this 
afternoon, to near 18.9N 123.5W late tonight with maximum 
sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, to near 19.7N 123.5W Sat 
afternoon with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, then 
weaken to a tropical storm near 20.7N 123.5W late Sat night with 
maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Odalys is forecast to 
become post-tropical near 21.9N 123.1W Sun afternoon, and near 
22.5N 122.1W late Sun night. Odalys will then weaken to a 
remnant low near 21.7N 121.2W early on Tue.

Fresh to strong southwest to west winds are expected to develop 
south of the monsoon trough over the weekend west of about 130W 
in response to developing broad area of low pressure well to the
east-sooutheast of the Hawaiian Islands. Seas are expected to 
steadily build with these winds, possibly reaching a range of 7 
to 10 ft.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form within
the next day or two to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Afterward environmental conditions should be favorable for 
gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to 
form late this weekend or early next week as the system moves 
slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast
of southern and southwestern Mexico.

$$
Konarik