Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221624 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Sep 22 2026

Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 14.7N 101.6W at 22/1500 
UTC, moving north at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 
920 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 145 kt with gusts to 175 
kt. Peak seas have risen up to near 44 ft or 13.5 m. Satellite 
imagery shows that Polo has a clear and well defined eye, with very 
deep convection continuing to wrap around an eyewall. Numerous 
strong convection in wide bands are within 270 nm of the center in 
the SE quadrants. Numerous moderate to strong, also in bands, is 
elsewhere within 150 nm of the center, except 240 nm in the SW 
quadrant. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen 
from 17N to 19N between 102W and 106W. Polo is forecast to turn 
toward the northwest and west-northwest is expected tonight and 
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be 
near the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days, 
although forecast to remain offshore. Polo is a category 5 hurricane 
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional 
strengthening is likely through tonight, with fluctuations in 
strength possible Wednesday and Wednesday night. Polo is expected to 
produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum 
totals up to 8 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states 
of Guerrero and Michoacán through Thursday. This rainfall may 
produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas 
of steep terrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is possible in coastal 
portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and Jalisco through Thu. Swells 
generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of the coast of 
southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 
Please consult products from your local weather office.

Tropical Storm Odalys is centered near 14.9N 130.5W at 22/1500 
UTC, moving north at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 
998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 
kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft or 6 m. satellite imagery shows
that Odalys is continuing to improve in organization. Numerous 
strong convection is within 180 nm of the center in the NE
quadrant, 240 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, 360 nm of 
the center in the SW quadrant and 60 nm of the center in the 
NW quadrant. Odalys is slowly moving toward north. A turn toward
the northeast and then east-northeast is expected to occur over 
the next day or so. An east-northeast to eastward motion is 
expected through the end of the week. Additional strengthening 
is forecast, and Odalys could become a hurricane later today or 
tonight.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Polo
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details on both systems.

Heavy Rainfall over Central America: A mid to upper-level trough
currently extends over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm 
sea surface temperatures are present, and in addition there is a 
potential for a Central American Gyre to form during the next 
several days. All of these factors are expected to lead to 
enhanced moisture funneling into Central America and the 
Caribbean to support heavy rainfall from September 22nd through 
the 25th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact 
location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks 
likely. Heavy rainfall in these regions will raise concerns for 
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to 
local weather services as well as the International Desk at the 
Weather Prediction Center for more information. Please consult 
products from your local weather office.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W north of 05N, moving 
westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 
60 nm either side of the wave from 12N to 13N. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A shortened monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to 
across the southwestern Caribbean Sea, then northwestward to across 
southern Nicaragua and to 12N87W and to 11N90W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 90 nm north of the trough between 88W-90W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
rapidly intensifying Major Hurricane Polo.

Aside from conditions associated with Polo, moderate to fresh NW
winds are offshore Baja California per overnight ASCAT 
scatterometer data, with moderate or weaker winds across the 
remainder of the waters. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of 
California, and 4 to 7 ft across the remainder of the waters 
away from Polo.

For the forecast, major Hurricane Polo will move to near 15.0N 
101.5W this evening with maximum sustained winds 155 kt gusts 190 
kt, to near 15.4N 101.9W Wed morning with with maximum sustained 
winds 150 kt gusts 185 kt, to near 16.1N 102.8W Wed evening, to near 
16.7N 104.2W Thu morning with maximum sustained winds 140 kt gusts 
170 kt, to near 17.1N 105.9W Thu evening with maximum sustained 
winds 130 kt gusts 160 kt, and to near 17.3N 107.5W Fri morning with 
maximum sustained winds 125 kt gusts 150 kt. Polo will move to near 
18.4N 110.8W early Sat with maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 
kt. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will prevail 
across the offshore Baja California waters through early Fri morning 
when conditions in Baja California Sur offshores will start to 
deteriorate due to the proximity of Polo. Looking ahead, Tropical 
Storm Odalys currently well to the southwest of the southern tip of 
Baja California is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane and 
gradually approach the waters just beyond the Baja California 
offshore waters by the end of the upcoming weekend. Outer swells 
associated with Odalys will propagate into the Baja California 
waters and mix with those from Polo to create very confused and 
hazardous seas this weekend. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds may 
develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Thu, then pulse into the 
upcoming weekend. Also, an area of low pressure is expected to form 
in the next few days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Afterward, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual 
development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or 
this weekend as the system moves slowly west-northwestward to 
northwestward. This motion should keep it parallel to the coast of 
southern and southwestern Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the 
region, except slight seas nearshore Colombia, eastern Panama and
in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. Scattered to numerous 
showers and thunderstorms are over the offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador due to a tropical wave approaching 90W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are east of the
wave over the outer offshore waters of northern Costa Rica.

For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds are expected to
prevail across the offshore waters for the next several days, 
except becoming moderate to fresh offshore El Salvador and 
Guatemala Thu into early Sat as an area of low pressure is
expected to form just west of the area south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. A tropical depression could from this area of low 
pressure late this week or this weekend as the system moves 
slowly away from the offshore waters. Swells from this system may
potentially impact the western portion of the offshore waters of
Guatemala and El Salvador.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
extremely dangerous category 5 Hurricane Polo, and on Tropical 
Storm Odalys.

Outside of Odalys and Polo, fresh to strong winds, and rough 
seas, are over the waters from 14N to 24N and west of 133W due 
to a tight gradient between high pressure over the northwest 
portion of the area, Odalys and a remnant low pressure west of 
140W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, major Hurricane Polo will move to near 15.4N 
101.9W Wed morning, to near 16.1N 102.8W Wed evening, to near 16.7N 
104.2W Thu morning with maximum sustained winds 140 kt gusts 170 kt, 
to near 17.1N 105.9W Thu evening with maximum sustained winds 130 kt 
gusts 160 kt, and to near 17.3N 107.5W Fri morning with maximum 
sustained winds 125 kt gusts 150 kt. Polo will move to near 18.4N 
110.8W early Sat with maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt. 
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Odalys is forecast to strengthen to a 
hurricane near 15.2N 129.9W this evening with maximum sustained 
winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, move to near 15.3N 128.7W Wed morning with 
maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, to near 15.6N 127.3W Wed 
evening, to near 16.1N 126.0W Thu morning, then begin to gradually 
weaken as it reaches to near 16.7N 124.8W Thu evening with maximum 
sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt and to near 17.4N 123.7W Fri 
morning. Odalys is then forecast to weaken to a tropical storm near 
18.9N 123.0W early Sat with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 
kt. Very large seas generated by both systems will merge by the end 
of the week into the upcoming weekend as the systems get closer 
together resulting in very dangerous and hazardous conditions. 
Otherwise, high pressure over the remainder of the area will pretty 
much maintain moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

$$
Aguirre