Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 012239
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Jun 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure and an attendant cold front
moving S of 31N will reach from Bermuda to the NW Bahamas by late
Tue. Strong SW winds will develop ahead of the front Tue,
increasing to gale-force SE of Bermuda by afternoon. Seas will
build in this area to very rough. The front will stall Tue night,
and winds will fall below gale force by Wed morning. 

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 16N and 
moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 04N to 07N between 33W and 37W.

A new tropical wave has been analyzed along 46W, S of 15N, moving
W at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is presently associated with this
wave. 

A far western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W, S of 15N
extending southward into the eastern Pacific, moving W at around 5
kt. Associated convection is confined to inland portions of 
Central America and the waters of the eastern Pacific basin.
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
Bissau near 11N15W and extends to 07N31W. The ITCZ extends from
07N31W to the Brazil coast near 04N51W. Scattered moderate 
convection is evident from 04N to 07N east of 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A deep layer trough across the western Gulf is promoting scattered
moderate convection between 87W and 94W, with the most 
concentrated thunderstorms from 22N to 25N. Except near these 
thunderstorms, winds across the Gulf are moderate or weaker with 
seas 1-4 ft due to weak ridging predominating.

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf 
waters until Wed morning, supporting gentle to moderate easterly 
to southerly winds. On Wed night, a late-season cold front will 
enter the northeastern Gulf, then stall from near Cape Haze, 
Florida to New Orleans, Louisiana through Thu night before 
dissipating Fri. Anticipate fresh to strong E to SE winds and 
rough seas behind this front. By Fri night, ridging should rebuild
across the central and northeastern Gulf, resuming gentle to 
moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas for the entire Gulf. An 
upper-level trough across the western Gulf will continue to 
support showers and thunderstorms across the eastern and central 
Gulf through midweek.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient between a ridge north of the Greater
Antilles and a 1007 mb Colombian Low will continue to produce 
strong trades over the S central Caribbean. Fresh winds have also
developed in the Gulf of Honduras and over the remainder of the 
central and eastern basin. Rough seas are present where the strong
winds are, with moderate seas corresponding to fresh winds. For 
the rest of the basin, moderate winds and slight seas prevail. No
significant deep convection is occurring over the Caribbean this 
evening.

For the forecast, a tight gradient between the Atlantic ridge and
Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and 
moderate to rough seas at the central and part of the southwestern
basin through Wed morning. Afterward, these trade winds should 
decrease to between moderate and fresh with moderate seas by Thu. 
Fresh to strong winds with moderate seas are expected at the Gulf 
of Honduras through Fri night. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds 
with slight to moderate seas will prevail for the rest of the 
Caribbean Sea through the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning for
waters southeast of Bermuda Tue evening.

A cold front has stalled from 31N57W to 26N62W. Convection
associated with this boundary has diminished this evening.
However, an upper level trough to the west is leading to numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection from The Bahamas to 28N
between 72W and Florida. N of these thunderstorms, a 1011 mb low 
pressure is noted at 31N75W with a warm front extending SE to 
29N72W, and cold front stretching from the low to near Daytona 
Beach, Florida. The remainder of the basin is dominated ridging 
from the Azores High, leading to moderate to fresh NE to E trades 
and 6 to 9 ft seas. 

For the forecast west of 55W, low pressure will merge with an 
existing stationary front near 30N62W on Tue night. Aided by a 
strong high over the north-central Atlantic, near-gale to gale- 
force S to SW winds and rough seas are expected south of the low. 
As this low tracks northeastward away from the area Wed and Wed 
night, both winds and seas should gradually subside. Afterward, a 
surface ridge will build southeastward from the southeastern U.S. 
and promote gentle to moderate winds with moderate seas for the 
wester Atlantic. The except will be pulsing fresh to locally 
strong winds north of Hispaniola until Thu night.

$$
Konarik