Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 270959
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jun 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0955 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between
Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure over 
Colombia will lead to the trade winds offshore of Colombia and
in the Gulf of Venezuela to peak at gale-force this morning, and 
again tonight into Sun morning. These winds are forecast to 
produce seas in the range of 12 to 15 ft north of Colombia. Please
refer to High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has is near 36W from 11N 
southwestward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of 10N 
between 27W and 45W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 54W, south of 20N, and 
moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed south of 14N between 50W and 62W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 86W, south of 19N, moving
westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave is enhancing the shower activity
in Central America and along the eastern Pacific coast.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal
near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 09N25W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N25W to 08N34W and then from 03N40W to 00N49W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring east
of 18W and north of 04N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection continues to
affect the Bay of Campeche as a tropical wave passes by. A weak
high pressure system over the eastern Gulf waters supports gentle
to moderate SE-S winds and seas of 3-5 ft, west of 90W. Elsewhere,
moderate or lighter winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, a  weak ridge will persist over the Gulf region
through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic
winds will generally prevail across the basin during this time,
except for fresh to locally strong NE to E winds pulsing off the
northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly and moderate to locally 
fresh SE to S winds across the northwestern Gulf through the 
weekend. Looking ahead, a weak frontal boundary will sink southward
into the northeast Gulf Mon night and Tue and gradually 
dissipate. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning off
Colombia.

Outside of the Gale Warning area, the subtropical ridge over the
central Atlantic is forcing fresh to near gale-force easterly
trade winds and moderate to rough seas over much of the central 
Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly
breezes and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern Caribbean
and the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail. 

For the forecast, a persistent subtropical ridge centered between the
Azores and Bermuda will support fresh to strong easterly trade
winds and rough to locally very rough seas in the central Caribbean
through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale- force 
offshore of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela during the 
nighttime and early morning hours today and tonight. Elsewhere, 
pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas 
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Fresh to strong NE 
winds and moderate to locally rough seas will briefly affect the 
Windward Passage late this afternoon into early Sun. Moderate or 
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast across the 
remainder of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A couple of surface troughs located along 64W and 54W are
producing scattered showers north of 22N and between 45W and 65W.
A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted off SE
Florida and the NW Bahamas. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by
a broad subtropical ridge that supports moderate to fresh easterly
winds and moderate seas across much of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a persistent subtropical ridge will
dominate the forecast area through the weekend. Fresh to strong 
easterly winds, with locally rough seas are expected offshore 
Hispaniola expected this afternoon and tonight. A nearly north-to-
south aligned surface trough located near 64W will shift westward 
across the region through Sun, reaching near 70W by Sun morning 
while dissipating. This will weaken the ridge and lead to 
diminishing winds. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will sink 
southward into the waters off northeastern Florida Mon night and 
gradually dissipate.

$$
Delgado