Hurricane Polo

548 
WTPZ32 KNHC 250247
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
800 PM MST Thu Sep 24 2026
 
...POLO EXPECTED TO REGAIN CATEGORY 5 STATUS ON FRIDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 106.5W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this
system.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 106.5 West.  Polo is moving
toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue through Friday, followed by a west-northwestward to 
northwestward motion on Saturday.  On the forecast track, the core 
of Polo will continue to move away from the coast of southwestern 
Mexico overnight.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some strengthening is possible overnight, 
and Polo could become a category 5 hurricane again on Friday.  
Gradual weakening is forecast to occur starting Friday night and
Saturday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb (27.61 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico for the next few hours.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 
2 to 4 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of 
Michoacan, Colima, northern and southern Jalisco, and Nayarit. This 
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, 
especially in areas of steep terrain. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 
inches is possible in coastal portions of the Mexican states of 
central Jalisco and Guerrero.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, 
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic 
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF: Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and toward
Baja California Sur on Friday and into the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal
flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch