Tropical Storm Norbert

540 
WTPZ44 KNHC 110857
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142026
1100 PM HST Thu Sep 10 2026
 
Convection has increased and become more organized around Norbert 
tonight, with cloud-top temperatures below -80 C observed within the 
CDO. However, the tropical storm continues to contend with moderate 
westerly wind shear, with the center of the low-level circulation 
located near the western edge of the deep convection. Subjective 
and objective Dvorak intensity estimates have increased this 
evening, ranging from 45 to 59 kt. Given the improving convective 
organization and the higher intensity estimates, the initial 
intensity is set at 50 kt for this advisory. 
 
Norbert is moving westward around 13 kt along the southwestern 
periphery of a mid-level ridge building over the eastern Pacific. 
This general motion with a slightly slower forward speed is expected 
over the next few days as the ridge strengthens and builds westward. 
The forecast becomes more complex by the end of the weekend and into 
next week, as the strength and position of the ridge will likely 
determine Norbert's longer-term track. A stronger ridge would favor 
a west-southwestward to southwestward motion, while a weaker ridge 
would allow Norbert to continue moving westward for a longer period. 
The latest NHC forecast calls for Norbert to turn toward the 
west-southwest by early next week and is similar to the previous 
track forecast.
 
Decreasing wind shear and sufficiently warm sea surface temperatures 
should support gradual strengthening over the next few days, 
although some mid-level dry air immediately west of the cyclone 
could limit the extent of the intensification. Beyond 72 h, a wide 
spread develops in the intensity guidance, in part because the 
eventual track will influence Norbert's intensity. A farther south 
track would allow for Norbert to stay over slightly warmer waters, 
supporting a stronger system. The latest NHC intensity forecast has 
been raised slightly from the previous advisory through the next day 
or so and lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance, close 
to the HCCA and Google DeepMind solutions. Given the large model 
spread, forecast confidence is slightly below normal beyond 72 h.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0900Z 16.6N 123.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 16.7N 125.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 17.0N 127.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 17.3N 129.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  13/0600Z 17.9N 131.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  13/1800Z 18.2N 133.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  14/0600Z 18.4N 135.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  15/0600Z 18.4N 139.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  16/0600Z 17.4N 143.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Adams