Tropical Storm Marie

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 012032
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
200 PM MST Tue Sep 01 2026
 
The satellite presentation of Marie continues to improve with 
curved bands over the northern and eastern portions of the 
circulation.  Recent scatterometer data shows that Marie has a 
large wind field with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward 
up to 160 nautical miles over the eastern semicircle.  The ASCAT 
data revealed peak winds of 45 kt and given the typical 
undersampling of that instrument, the initial intensity has been 
raised to 50 kt.  That value is near a consensus of the various 
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. 

The storm will be moving over sea surface temperatures around 
29 degrees Celsius and remain in a low shear environment during the 
next couple of days.  With the large radius of maximum winds, it 
may take a little time for the system to establish an inner core, 
but once that occurs steady intensification is likely.  The NHC 
intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous forecast 
and lies between the HCCA and GDMI models.  There is some potential 
that Marie could strengthen more quickly over the next day or two 
than indicated in the forecast below. After day 4, cooler SSTs and 
a more stable airmass are expected to cause gradual weakening. 

Marie continues to move northwestward around the western portion of 
a mid-level ridge over Mexico.  A narrow ridge is forecast to 
establish itself to the north of Marie in a day or two, which 
should cause the system to turn west-northwestward. After 72 hours, 
an amplifying mid-level trough along the west coast of the United 
State could cause Marie to slow down.  It is after that time period 
that there is larger spread in the track guidance. The NHC forecast 
leans closer to the typically reliable HFIP corrected consensus 
model and the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 15.5N 109.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 16.5N 110.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 17.5N 111.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 18.4N 113.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 19.2N 114.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 19.8N 116.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 20.3N 117.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 21.7N 120.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 22.9N 122.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Brown