Text Products
Hurricane Marie
Public Advisory #21
4 hr & 50 min ago • 200 AM PDT
ES
Adviso Publico #21
hace 4 h y 50 min • 200 AM PDT
Forecast Advisory #21
4 hr & 50 min ago • 0900 UTC
Forecast Discussion #21
4 hr & 50 min ago • 200 AM PDT
ES
Pronóstico Discusión #21
hace 4 h y 50 min • 200 AM PDT
Wind Speed Probabilities #21
4 hr & 50 min ago • 0900 UTC
Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion
Advisory Number: 21
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 06 2026
850
WTPZ43 KNHC 060847
TCDEP3
Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 06 2026
Convection associated with Marie, while showing well organized
banding, has diminished some in intensity since the last advisory.
However, this has not yet translated into a notable weakening in the
various satellite intensity estimates. Thus, the initial intensity
remains a possibly generous 80 kt.
The initial motion is 315/7 kt. Marie is currently being steered by
a mid- to upper-level ridge to the northeast and heading for a
break in the ridge caused by a large trough over the U. S. West
Coast. This trough is forecast to move northeastward during the
next 24 h, allowing some ridging to develop north of Marie and turn
the cyclone west-northwestward. By 48 h, a new trough developing to
the northwest of Marie should turn the cyclone back to a northwest
motion, with the low-level center continuing this general motion
until the system dissipates. The new forecast track is in good
agreement with the HCCA Corrected Consensus, the Google DeepMind
ensemble mean, and the Florida State Superensemble.
Marie is starting to move into sea surface temperatures below 26C,
and the the temperatures get progressively colder along the
forecast track. This, combined with some dry air entrainment,
should start a steady weakening later today. After 48 h,
increasing shear should cause the cyclone to become decoupled
vertically, which should lead to the convection dissipating and the
cyclone becoming post-tropical between 72-96 h. The global models
forecast the low-level circulation to dissipate completely by 120 h,
and the intensity forecast follows this.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 23.1N 121.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 23.8N 122.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 24.5N 123.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 25.1N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 25.8N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 27.0N 127.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 28.7N 128.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 32.7N 130.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven