Hurricane Marie

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 061452
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Marie Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Marie has become less organized since the previous advisory and no 
longer has an eye.  In fact, the northwest quadrant is completely 
void of deep convection.  The latest subjective and objective 
satellite intensity estimates range from 59-77 kt.  The initial 
intensity is lowered to 70 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward, or 310 degrees at 8 
kt. Marie is currently feeling some pull by a mid- to upper-level 
trough currently over the U.S. west coast.  As that trough moves 
eastward on Monday and loosens its grip on Marie, the cyclone should 
turn back toward the west-northwest for a day or so.  Then, another 
mid- to upper-level low will strengthen over the Pacific to the 
northwest of Marie, causing a turn back toward the northwest, or 
possibly north-northwest on Tuesday.  The NHC track forecast is very 
similar to the previous one and closely follows the HFIP Corrected 
Consensus (HCCA) and Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean (GDMI).  Based on 
the spread in the guidance, confidence in the track forecast is near 
average.
 
Marie has already crossed the 26C isotherm, and currently resides 
within a dry, low-shear environment.  Marie will move into steadily 
decreasing water temperatures and even drier air over the next few 
days.  Around hour 48, southwesterly vertical wind shear will 
increase significantly as Marie approaches the aforementioned mid- 
to upper-level low to its northwest.  A slightly lower intensity is 
shown in the 12-36 hour time period, mainly due to the weaker 
initial intensity along with expected steady weakening over the next 
couple of days, although the NHC intensity forecast is still at the 
high end of model suite during that time.  Marie could hang on as a 
35-40 kt tropical storm in the 48 to 72 h period as the upper-level 
low may briefly provide some favorable dynamics before the shear 
becomes too strong.  The simulated satellite imagery from the GFS 
and ECMWF models suggest that Marie should lose its convection and 
become a post-tropical remnant low just beyond the hour 72 point, so 
NHC will continue to show post-tropical after that time.  After the 
system becomes post-tropical, global models show it weakening and 
dissipating in 4 to 5 days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 23.5N 122.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 24.1N 123.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 24.7N 124.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 25.3N 125.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 26.3N 127.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  09/0000Z 27.7N 127.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 29.7N 128.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 33.6N 131.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen