Tropical Storm Lowell

347 
WTPZ42 KNHC 290241
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122026
500 PM HST Fri Aug 28 2026

Lowell remains a sheared tropical cyclone this afternoon. Moderate 
easterly vertical wind shear continues to displace the bulk of the 
convection over and west of the low-level circulation center. There 
has been little evidence of strengthening during the past several 
hours, and a blend of the latest objective intensity estimates and 
subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB support holding the 
initial intensity at 40 kt for this advisory. 

The cyclone continues to move slowly westward, with an initial 
motion of about 275/5 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge is forecast to 
strengthen north of the cyclone during the next couple of days, 
which should cause the cyclone to continue westward with a gradual 
increase in forward speed. This general westward motion is expected 
to continue through the weekend and into early next week. Track 
forecast uncertainty increases considerably thereafter due in part 
to the potential influence on the steering flow from TS Karina to 
its northeast. There remains considerable spread in the guidance, 
particularly in forward speed, with the multi-model consensus (HCCA) 
and Google DeepMind ensemble mean generally faster than the GFS and 
ECMWF solutions. In addition to the along-track spread, the 
cross-track spread also increases considerably by day 5. Given these 
differences, the latest NHC track forecast reflects a blend of the 
previous forecast, Google DeepMind ensemble mean, and HCCA.  

The easterly vertical wind shear currently affecting Lowell is 
forecast to hold into the weekend, then steadily decrease by the 
latter half of the weekend, which should allow the cyclone to become 
better organized and gradually strengthen. However, the current 
sheared structure and nearby mid- to upper-level dry air should 
temper the rate of intensification in the short term. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to become more favorable thereafter, and a 
faster rate of strengthening is possible beginning by early next 
week. The intensity forecast becomes more uncertain later in the 
period due to Lowell's potential interaction with Karina. A faster 
westward track would likely keep the cyclones sufficiently separated 
and allow Lowell to continue strengthening, while a slower solution 
could expose Lowell to stronger shear associated with outflow from 
Karina. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous 
advisory and continues to show Lowell becoming a hurricane in about 
60 h.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 12.5N 134.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 12.6N 135.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 12.7N 136.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 12.8N 138.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  31/0000Z 13.0N 140.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  31/1200Z 13.2N 142.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 13.4N 144.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  02/0000Z 13.7N 146.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  03/0000Z 14.2N 150.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs