Hurricane Polo

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 290911 CCA
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number  35...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
200 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2026

Corrected for Key Message number 1.

Polo made landfall around 06Z along the west coast of Baja
California Sur, just south of the small town of Las Barrancas.
Several microwave fixes received after the 03Z advisory went out
(WSF-M, SAR, and two ASCAT passes) all indicated that center of Polo
was a bit farther south than was estimated at 03Z.  There is some
uncertainty in what the intensity was at landfall, but given all the
data we have received, it is likely that Polo was a category 2
hurricane at the time of landfall with maximum winds in the 90-95
kt range.  The center has been over land for about 3 hours now, and
it is estimated that the maximum winds have come down to about 70
kt.
 
The hurricane is moving northeastward, or 30 degrees at 9 kt.  A
significant increase in forward speed is expected this morning as a
mid- to upper-level trough amplifies over the southwestern U.S.
This track should take the system inland over the Mexican state of
Sonora late this morning.  The track forecast is a little slower
compared to the previous forecast for the first 12 hours, mainly
due to the slower initial motion.
 
Some slight additional weakening is likely for another couple of
hours while the center of Polo remains over land.  When the center
emerges over the Gulf of California, atmospheric and oceanic
conditions could allow for Polo to maintain its intensity.  The
latest HAFS models show landfall in Sonora around 60 kt, but it is
possible that Polo could still be a hurricane when it reaches that
state.  After landfall, rapid weakening is expected over the
rugged terrain of northwestern Mexico.  Although Polo is likely to
dissipate between the hour 12 and 24 points, a 24 hour point is
included for continuity.
 
Polo's remnant vorticity will likely interact and phase with a
strong cutoff low digging into the Four Corners region of the U.S.
on Tuesday and Wednesday, contributing to heavy rainfall, flash
flooding, and gusty winds in the southwestern U.S. and southern
Plains. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and
local National Weather Service offices for more information.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Polo is still bringing hurricane-force winds to Baja California 
Sur, and residents there should remain in a safe shelter through 
this morning. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will spread 
into mainland Mexico early today. A dangerous storm surge is 
expected in areas of onshore winds.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact Baja California
Sur along with southern and central portions of Sonora today. This
rainfall is expected to produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Moisture from Polo
will support heavy rainfall and flooding potential across the
Southwest U.S. into the Southern High Plains today into early
Wednesday.
 
3. Even after Polo dissipates, its mid-level remnants may produce
strong gusty winds well inland over the higher terrain of northwest
Mexico, southern New Mexico, and far western Texas.
 
4. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of the
northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next day or
so.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 26.2N 111.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 28.4N 110.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 24H  30/0600Z 31.7N 106.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen