Hurricane Polo

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 291742
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 36A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
1100 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2026
 
...POLO MAKES LANDFALL A LITTLE EAST OF GUAYMAS MEXICO...
...HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF 
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 110.6W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NNE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings for the east
coast of Baja California Sur.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next few
hours
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case in the next several hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests in the remainder of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should
monitor the progress of Polo.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
just inland over the Mexican state of Sonora near latitude 28.0 
North, longitude 110.6 West. Polo is moving toward the northeast 
near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with 
an increase in forward speed today. On the forecast track, will 
move farther inland over the southern portion of the state of Sonora 
this afternoon.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Rapid weakening is expected as the center of Polo moves 
farther inland.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km). The Mexican Navy weather station in Guaymas 
recently reported sustained winds of 44 mph (72 kn/h) and a wind 
gust of 56 mph (90 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area and
possible in the watch area for a few more hours. Hurricane and
tropical storm conditions are expected over northwestern Mexico
near the center of Polo this afternoon.
 
A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of southern New Mexico and
far western Texas where strong gusty winds are possible late today
and tonight in association with Polo’s remnants. Refer to products
issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for
additional information.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6
inches across southern and central portions of Sonora with isolated
maximum totals of 8 inches. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall
is expected across Baja California Sur. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue to affect portions of
the coast of the Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven