Hurricane Polo

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 260256
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Polo Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
800 PM MST Fri Sep 25 2026
 
Another NOAA research aircraft investigated Polo extensively this 
afternoon. The aircraft found that the minimum pressure of Polo has 
decreased slightly since the last advisory, to 911 mb. The highest 
flight-level winds measured by the aircraft were 154 kt, which 
corresponds to a 10-m wind near 140 kt. Higher instantaneous winds 
representing gusts were measured by several dropsondes, while 
another experimental instrument measured winds at near 80 m/s (155 
kt) at a height of 25 m. Since the plane flew a non-standard pattern 
on its research mission and the central pressure has actually 
slightly decreased, the intensity has been only very slightly 
lowered to 150 kt for this advisory. 
 
Fluctuations in intensity due to an eyewall replacement cycle are 
possible tonight and tomorrow, but the exact timing of such events 
can not be reliably forecast. Most guidance indicates that Polo will 
begin to gradually weaken over the next couple of days as it moves 
into a region of lower ocean heat content and encounters some 
moderate vertical wind shear. Drier environmental mid-level air 
could also contribute to weakening by the end of the weekend. 
However, it must be stressed that Polo will likely remain a 
dangerous major hurricane as it begins to approach the Baja 
California peninsula on Monday. The NHC intensity forecast remains 
on the upper end of the intensity guidance and no changes of note 
were made.

Polo has continued westward for the past several hours. There is no 
change to the track forecast reasoning with this advisory. The 
hurricane is still expected to turn gradually northwestward 
tomorrow, then northward by the end of the weekend while it moves 
around the western side of a ridge centered over northern Mexico. 
Early next week an upper-level trough approaching from the 
northwest will cause the hurricane to turn northeastward toward 
Baja California Sur and west-central Mexico. Some of NHC's most 
reliable track guidance, including the GDM and HCCA continue to be 
outliers in showing a faster track, bringing Polo to the coast of 
Baja California Sur sooner than most other guidance. Out of respect 
for this guidance, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted 
slightly faster and farther north again, but is generally very 
similar to the previous advisory.
 
Distant moisture from Hurricane Polo and Odalys will be transported
into the southwestern United States this weekend and early next
week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash
flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather
Prediction Center for more information.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Polo is forecast to approach the west coast of the Baja 
California peninsula on Monday as a hurricane, and a Hurricane 
Watch is now in effect for that region. Tropical Storm conditions 
could reach portions of the coast as soon as Sunday, making further 
preparations difficult. A storm surge will be possible, especially 
in areas onshore winds.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja
California Sur late Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of 
the northwest coast of Mexico for the next several days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0300Z 17.4N 110.1W  150 KT 175 MPH
 12H  26/1200Z 17.8N 111.4W  145 KT 165 MPH
 24H  27/0000Z 19.0N 112.8W  135 KT 155 MPH
 36H  27/1200Z 20.6N 113.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  28/0000Z 22.6N 113.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  28/1200Z 24.6N 113.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  29/0000Z 26.3N 112.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  30/0000Z 29.8N 109.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
120H  01/0000Z 31.6N 105.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky