Hurricane Polo

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 260850
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
200 AM MST Sat Sep 26 2026
 
...POLO REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY AS
A POWERFUL HURRICANE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 111.0W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Eugenia to Santa Fe
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located 
near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 111.0 West. Polo is moving 
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn 
toward the northwest is expected late today and toward the north on 
Sunday. By Monday, Polo is forecast to turn northeastward and 
approach Baja California Sur.
 
Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 165 
mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts.  Polo is an extremely dangerous 
category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. 
Fluctuations in intensity are possible today. Slow weakening is 
expected to begin tonight, but Polo is expected to remain a powerful 
hurricane as it approaches Baja California Sur on Monday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 917 mb (27.08 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Monday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible in the
southern portion of the watch area by Sunday night into early
Monday. These conditions are expected to spread northward during the
day on Monday.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding
and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in
areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will also
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja
California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen