Tropical Storm Vance

658 
WTPZ42 KNHC 230239
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Vance Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
900 PM CST Thu Oct 22 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Vance continues to become better 
organized, with an expanding Central Dense Overcast, a well-defined 
curved convective band wrapping into the circulation from the south, 
and cloud-top temperatures as cold as -85 C. Upper-level outflow 
remains well established, and recent microwave imagery reveals an 
improvement in the inner-core structure compared to several hours 
ago. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was 
T4.0/65 kt, in good agreement with UW-CIMSS objective estimates 
ranging from 55 to 65 kt. Given these estimates and the continued 
improvement in satellite presentation, the initial intensity is 
raised to a conservative 60 kt.

Vance has turned northwestward, and the initial motion is estimated 
at 325/5 kt. The cyclone should continue moving northwestward along 
the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge extending over 
Mexico into early Friday. A gradual turn toward the north-northwest 
is expected during the next couple of days as the ridge weakens in 
response to an upper-level trough over the southwestern United 
States. The latest track guidance remains in good agreement through 
about 60 h. Thereafter, the trough is expected to shift eastward, 
leaving Vance in a region of weaker steering currents and resulting 
in increasing spread among the guidance solutions. The regional 
hurricane models and GFS favor a more westward track away from the 
coast between days 4 and 5, while the GDMI, HCCA, TVCN, and ECMWF 
maintain a more north-northwestward track toward the southwestern 
and west-central coast of Mexico. Given these persistent differences 
in the extended guidance, the NHC track forecast is largely 
unchanged from the previous prediction and remains close to the GDMI 
and HCCA aids.

Environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for 
significant strengthening during the next couple of days, 
characterized by warm sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind 
shear, and plenty of mid-level moisture. Guidance continues to 
indicate a high likelihood of rapid intensification (RI), with 
probabilities from the GFS- and ECMWF-based statistical guidance 
reaching 65 to 80 percent during the next 24 h, well above 
climatological values. Accordingly, the NHC intensity forecast 
explicitly calls for RI during the next 24 h, with Vance forecast to 
become a major hurricane by early Saturday. Thereafter, the cyclone 
could encounter relatively cooler waters, potentially influenced by 
upwelling associated with recent tropical cyclones, along with 
increasing vertical wind shear. These factors should limit further 
strengthening and support gradual weakening beginning around 60 h. 
The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous prediction and 
remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope through much of 
the forecast period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 10.5N 101.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 10.9N 102.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 11.7N 102.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 12.5N 103.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 13.6N 103.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  25/1200Z 14.7N 103.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 15.7N 104.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 16.7N 104.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 17.3N 104.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs