Hurricane Vance

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 251456
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222026
1500 UTC SUN OCT 25 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 103.8W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE  80SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 135SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 103.8W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 103.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.5N 104.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.0N 104.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.3N 105.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.1N 105.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.0N 106.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.0N 106.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 19.5N 107.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 21.4N 107.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 103.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ADAMS