Tropical Storm Karina

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 272046
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
200 PM MST Thu Aug 27 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure (Invest 
EP93) has developed a more organized circulation, along with banded 
convection around its center. The most recent subjective Dvorak 
analysis from TAFB was 2.5/2.5, which reflects this organization. 
Scatterometry data from around 1600 UTC also showed a slightly 
elongated, but closed circulation with max winds between 35 and 40 
kt. Based on this, advisories have been initiated on Tropical Storm 
Karina, with an initial intensity of 40 kt. 

The initial motion estimate was set at 295/11 kt. Karina is expected 
to continue on a northwestward track over the next several days, 
staying well off the coast of Mexico. A high pressure ridge centered 
over the southwestern US will drive Karina's northwestward motion, 
before an upper-level trough just off the Pacific coast is forecast 
to shift Karina's track more westward around early next week. 
Forecast models are in good agreement through 72 h on Karina's 
track, then show more spread as the cyclone moves away from the 
ridge's influence, thus hindering forecast confidence heading into 
next week.

SHIPS guidance suggests a favorable environment for strengthening 
over the next several days as Karina moves over warm SSTs in a 
moisture-rich, low vertical wind shear environment. Models depict a 
steady intensification period over the next 72 h, before moving into 
an environment of cooler SSTs and reduced mid-level moisture. The 
SHIPS-RII consensus guidance suggests a nearly 50 percent chance of 
a 55 kt increase in winds in the next 48 hours, indicating that 
strengthening could occur at a faster rate. However, given that the 
storm currently lacks a tight inner core, the initial forecast 
reflects a slower intensification rate, and has generally followed 
the HCCA for both track and intensity. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 11.1N 111.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 12.2N 113.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 13.5N 114.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 14.9N 116.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 16.2N 118.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  30/0600Z 17.4N 119.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 18.1N 121.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  31/1800Z 18.6N 124.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  01/1800Z 19.4N 127.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Pierce/Zelinsky