Tropical Storm Odalys

973 
WTPZ41 KNHC 221445
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2026
 
Deep convection continues to build around the center of Odalys as 
the cyclone improves in organization. The most recent objective 
satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 49-61 kt. 
Meanwhile, TAFB's most recent Dvorak fix was T3.5/55 kt, which still 
the same as the previous cycle. Based on the given data, the 
initial intensity has been held at 55 kt for this advisory. 
 
There is larger than normal amount of uncertainty in regards to the 
initial position of Odalys with this forecast due to high clouds 
obscuring the low-level center and an outage of satellite data this 
morning. The cyclone is currently moving northward, or 355/4 kt. A 
further decrease in forward speed is possible as the storm continues 
to move more northward, then east-northeastward tonight as a trough 
that is moving across the eastern Pacific toward the western coast 
of the United States continues to deepen. Afterwards, Odalys will be 
steered by the flow of the trough resulting an east-northeastward to 
eastward motion for the next few days. After day three, the 
uncertainty in the track increases due to potential interaction with 
Hurricane Polo, which could cause Odalys to slow down late in the 
forecast period. The current NHC track forecast is similar to the 
previous advisory with only a few minor adjustments, however there 
is a higher degree of uncertainty with the forecast track due to 
the low-confidence initial position and analysis. That said, the 
forecast is still in good agreement with the HCCA and GDMI forecast 
aids. 
 
Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for 
intensification over the next few days, as the vertical wind shear 
should weaken slightly. In addition the cyclone will be in an 
environment with plenty of mid-level moisture and warm
sea-surface temperatures. Therefore, Odalys is forecast to become a 
hurricane with in the next day or so. Between 48 to 72 h, the storm 
could encounter a drier mid-level air mass and increased wind shear 
from the upper-level outflow from Hurricane Polo. The lastest NHC 
intensity forecast remains on the upper end of the model guidance, 
but close to the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids.  

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/1500Z 14.9N 130.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 15.2N 129.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 15.3N 128.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 15.6N 127.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 16.1N 126.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  25/0000Z 16.7N 124.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 17.4N 123.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 18.9N 123.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 20.7N 122.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Zelinsky