Tropical Storm Odalys

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 220258
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026
800 PM PDT Mon Sep 21 2026
 
Odalys is showing signs of becoming better organized tonight. Recent 
IR imagery depicts a plume of convection with cooling cloud-top 
temperatures near the estimated center of the storm, along with a 
persistent convective banding to its south. The latest Dvorak 
intensity estimate from TAFB was 3.5/55 kt, while objective 
intensity estimates are lower, ranging from 37-49 kt. The initial 
intensity is set at 45 kt for this advisory. 
 
The tropical storm is moving toward the west-northwest and is 
centered between a strong mid-level ridge to the northwest and a 
deepening mid-level trough moving through the southwestern United 
States and the Baja California peninsula. A turn toward the north, 
followed by a sharp turn toward the east-northeast with a slight 
decrease in forward speed, is forecast tonight through Tuesday. An 
east-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected through much 
of the remainder of the week as the aforementioned trough deepens 
and stalls over the far eastern Pacific. The track forecast becomes 
more complicated in the longer range, as some interaction between 
Odalys and Hurricane Polo could occur as it parallels the coast of 
southwestern Mexico. The latest NHC forecast has been adjusted 
slightly to the left of the previous track forecast, and remains 
near the middle of the forecast guidance envelope. 

Decreasing vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperature will 
support gradual strengthening over the next couple of days, and 
Odalys is forecast to become a hurricane by around 36 h. The 
hurricane is forecast to plateau in intensity around midweek, before 
increasing dry-air entrainment leads to slow weakening this weekend. 
The latest NHC forecast is near the upper end of the intensity 
forecast guidance, and is in close agreement with the HCCA and 
Google DeepMind solutions. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0300Z 14.3N 130.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 14.8N 130.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 15.1N 129.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 15.2N 128.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 15.5N 126.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  24/1200Z 16.1N 125.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 16.8N 124.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  26/0000Z 18.3N 122.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  27/0000Z 20.0N 121.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Adams