Hurricane Fausto

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 212034
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
1100 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2026

The core of Fausto has not regained any organization since the 
previous advisory, and overall the satellite appearance is of a 
system below hurricane strength. However, a SAR overpass near 14Z 
indicated that the system still had hurricane-force winds, and this 
is supported by satellite intensity estimates from microwave 
sounders. Based on these, the initial intensity is held at 65 kt.

Fausto is starting its west-northwestward turn and the initial 
motion is now 295/10 kt.  The subtropical ridge to the north and 
northeast of the cyclone should build westward during the next 
five days, and this evolution should steer the cyclone west- 
northwestward to westward through the forecast period. As before, 
the track guidance remains tightly clustered for three days. After 
that, there remains an increase in the north-south spread between 
the GFS and Canadian models on the north side of the guidance 
envelope and the ECMWF, Google DeepMind, and the HAFS models on the 
south side of the guidance envelope.  For the first three days, the 
new forecast track lies near the previous forecast and the center of 
the guidance. At days 4 and 5, it is a little south of the previous 
track and a little north of the various consensus models.

While Fausto is forecast to be in a light- to moderate shear 
environment for the next several days, it will be moving over 
slowly decreasing sea surface temperatures through 72 h. 
Subsequently, the forecast track is near and roughly parallel to 
the 26C isotherm.  In addition, the atmospheric moisture near the 
storm should slowly decrease for 72 h, followed by a faster 
decrease. The intensity guidance responds to these factors by 
showing intensification for 48-60 h, with a gradual weakening after 
72 h. Based on the guidance and the need for the core to 
re-organize, the new intensity forecast shows little change in 
strength for 12 h, followed by gradual strengthening until the 60 h 
point. The forecast peak intensity of 85 kt is near the upper edge 
of the guidance. After 72 h, the forecast follows the overall 
weakening trend of the guidance. The new forecast is weaker than 
than the previous forecast through 60 h, and is similar to the 
previous forecast thereafter.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/2100Z 16.6N 119.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 17.0N 121.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 17.4N 122.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 17.7N 124.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 17.9N 127.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  24/0600Z 18.3N 129.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 18.6N 132.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 19.4N 137.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 20.1N 142.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven