Tropical Storm Odalys

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 210242
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026
 
The northerly shear that has been impeding Odalys' intensification 
rate appears to have increased during the past several hours.  The 
surface center has become exposed to the northwest of the deep 
convective cloud mass, and the cloud tops have warmed somewhat as 
well.  The UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates and the TAFB 
Dvorak satellite intensity classification yield an intensity of 45 
kt for this advisory.
 
Although Odalys is moving over warm oceanic temperatures and within 
a moist, unstable air mass, modest northerly vertical shear should 
continue to impinge on the northern side of the cyclone for the next 
24 hours. Consequently, little if any strengthening is expected in 
the short-term. By Monday evening, the SHIPS statistical intensity 
model and the global models show the shear diminishing, allowing 
Odalys to strengthen through day 4 gradually. Afterward, increasing 
deep-layer shear and less favorable thermodynamic atmospheric 
conditions are expected to inhibit further intensification and 
commence a slow weakening trend. The official intensity forecast 
indicates a slower rate of strengthening compared to the previous 
one, and is very close to the HCCA and GDMI aids, but above the IVCN 
consensus guidance. 
 
Odalys' initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/11 
kt, and this general motion should continue through Monday night.  
On Tuesday, a rather abrupt turn toward the east is forecast in 
response to a mid- to upper-level amplifying tropospheric trough 
moving over the eastern Pacific toward the west coast of California 
and the Baja California peninsula.  By mid-week, the cyclone should 
gradually move east-northeastward and eventually northeastward 
within the weakness created by the trough and in the northwestern 
side of a mid-level ridge situated between Odalys and Tropical Storm 
Polo.  The NHC track forecast lies between the HFIP HCCA and the 
GDMI TC ensemble mean and is adjusted to the right of the previous 
forecast beyond day 3.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0300Z 13.1N 127.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 14.1N 128.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 15.1N 130.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 15.5N 130.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 15.6N 129.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  23/1200Z 15.7N 128.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  24/0000Z 16.0N 127.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  25/0000Z 17.3N 125.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  26/0000Z 18.9N 123.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts