Hurricane Fausto

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 210846
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
200 AM PDT Tue Jul 21 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Fausto has continued to become
better organized during the past several hours. Although modest
northerly shear continues to affect the cyclone, the central dense
overcast has recently begun to expand over the center and into the
northwestern quadrant, suggesting that the inner core is becoming
better established. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from
TAFB is now T4.5/77 kt, while objective estimates are hovering
around 65 kt. Based on a blend of these data and the improving
satellite presentation, the initial intensity is increased to 70 kt.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be 310/9 kt, and that general
motion is expected to persist through tonight as the cyclone moves
toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. By Wednesday, high
pressure is forecast to build westward to the north of Fausto,
causing the system to turn west-northwestward and gradually
accelerate through the remainder of the forecast period. Track
guidance remains tightly clustered through about 72 h. Thereafter,
although the cross-track spread gradually increases, the multi-model
consensus (HCCA) and GFS have shifted southward toward the ECMWF and
Google DeepMind ensemble mean, which remain on the southern end of
the guidance envelope. The NHC forecast is very similar to the
previous, with only a slight shift southward, closely aligning with
the HCCA track.
 
Fausto is expected to move into an environment of lower vertical
wind shear while remaining over warm waters and within a moist air
mass during the next couple of days. As the modest northerly shear
begins to relax later today or tonight, conditions should support
steady to rapid strengthening through Wednesday. The NHC intensity
forecast brings Fausto to near major hurricane intensity by 36 h and
remains near the upper end of the guidance envelop. A gradual
weakening trend is expected thereafter as the cyclone moves over
progressively cooler waters and into a drier, more stable
environment.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0900Z 15.4N 118.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 16.1N 119.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 16.6N 120.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 17.1N 122.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 17.4N 124.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  23/1800Z 17.8N 126.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z 18.1N 129.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  25/0600Z 19.1N 134.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  26/0600Z 20.0N 139.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)