Hurricane Fausto

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 211439
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
500 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2026

Somewhat surprisingly, the core of Fausto has lost organization 
during the past several hours. The central convection has become 
disorganized in conventional satellite imagery, and a 0913Z AMSR 
overpass indicated that the low-level center had become partly 
exposed to the north of the convection. This is likely due to a 
resurgence in the northerly vertical shear that has been present for 
the last several days. The satellite intensity estimates have 
decreased since the last advisory, and based on these the initial 
intensity is reduced to 65 kt.

The initial motion is now estimated to be 305/10 kt. The track 
guidance forecasts a turn toward the west-northwest in the next 
12 h or so as the subtropical ridge to the northeast of the cyclone 
builds westward. A general west-northwestward to westward motion 
is then expected for the rest of the forecast period. The track
guidance remains tightly clustered through about 72 h. Thereafter, 
there remains an increase in the north-south spread between the GFS 
on the north side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF and Google 
DeepMind on the south side of the guidance envelope. The new 
forecast track has minor adjustments from the previous track, is 
similar to the previous forecast at 120 h, and lies just a little to 
the north of center of the guidance envelope.

The models continue to forecast that Fausto will reach a light-shear 
environment in the next 12-24 h. However, the cyclone is moving over 
slightly cooler sea surface temperatures, and as a result the 
intensity guidance is showing less strengthening during the first 
36-48 h than previously. It should also be noted that the 
shear has been a bit stronger than forecast all through the life of 
Fausto. With that being said, the intensity forecast will follow 
the guidance in showing a resumed strengthening later today and a 
peak intensity in 36-60 h. Beyond that time, a gradual weakening 
trend is expected as the cyclone moves over progressively cooler 
waters and into a drier, more stable environment. The new forecast 
is nudged downward from the previous forecast for the first 48 h 
and changed little thereafter.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/1500Z 16.3N 118.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 16.8N 119.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 17.2N 121.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 17.5N 123.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  23/1200Z 17.8N 125.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  24/0000Z 18.2N 127.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  24/1200Z 18.6N 130.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  25/1200Z 19.5N 135.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 20.3N 140.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven