Hurricane Karina

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 010234
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Karina Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026
500 PM HST Mon Aug 31 2026
 
Latest visible and infrared satellite imagery show little change in 
Karina's structure over the last several hours. The 00z subjective 
Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB showed an increase to T5.5/102 
kt, while objective UW-CIMSS estimates range from 110 to 115 kt. 
Given the steady trend of Karina's appearance on satellite, the 
initial intensity estimate was held at 115 kt. 

Karina's initial motion is estimated to be 285/8 kt, the same as the 
previous advisory. The storm is expected to continue a 
west-northwestward motion through the forecast period, guided by 
mid-level ridging centered to the northwest over the north central 
Pacific. Other than a slight shift northward, little was changed in 
the track forecast, which reflects a blend of the previous advisory, 
HCCA, and GDMI.

The intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, which 
remains slightly higher than the model consensus. SHIPS guidance 
suggests that Karina will remain in a favorable environment of low 
vertical wind shear, and over warm SSTs for the next couple of days. 
Beyond Day 3, the system will begin to encounter cooler SSTs and a 
drier mid-level environment. Thus, the latest forecast continues to 
reflects a more steady weakening trend at that time, near the 
intensity consensus aids.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 17.8N 126.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 18.2N 128.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 18.5N 130.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 18.9N 132.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 19.3N 134.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  03/1200Z 19.7N 136.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 20.0N 137.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 20.9N 141.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 22.3N 144.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Kelly