Tropical Storm Edouard

000
WTNT45 KNHC 010848
TCDAT5
 
Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052026
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026
 
It has been easy to track the center of Edouard this morning, 
showing up as a well-defined core of shallow convection on shortwave 
infrared satellite imagery and radar reflectivity from Lake Charles, 
Louisiana (KLCH). While the final fixes from the prior Air Force 
Reserve reconnaissance mission did not show an additional pressure 
drop, their remarks did note a nascent low-level eyewall was trying 
to form, which can also be seen from land-based radar. This 
structure could prove important for Edouard's near-term 
intensification prospects as deep convection begins to reform close 
to the storm center. For now, the initial intensity remains 35 kt 
this advisory, in agreement with radial velocity data from KLCH and 
the 06 UTC TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate. Another Air Force Reserve 
reconnaissance mission is scheduled to investigate Edouard again 
this morning. 
 
The intensity forecast today is problematic. Edouard has managed to 
develop a small core that could be prone to rapid changes in 
intensity. In addition, environmental conditions are quite favorable 
for intensification while Edouard remains over water, with 31 C 
sea-surface temperatures, and low vertical wind shear diagnosed at  
4 kt by UW-CIMSS. The raw output from the hurricane-regional models 
responds to these factors by showing substantial intensification 
today, with both HMON and HAFS-A making Edouard a hurricane before 
landfall. HAFS-B and HWRF show a somewhat more tempered rate of 
intensification. Given Edouard's current structure, a rapid 
increase in intensity before landfall is still anticipated, and the 
latest NHC forecast shows a 55 kt intensity near landfall, which is 
close to the raw model HAFS-B output at that time. Of note, this is 
well above the interpolated intensity guidance which can struggle 
to depict rapid short-term intensity changes in these cases close 
to landfall. After landfall, Edouard should quickly weaken, likely 
becoming post-tropical in 36 h and dissipating by 48 h. 
 
Edouard continues to move off to the west-northwest at 300/7 kt. A 
prominent low- to mid-level ridge centered over the southeastern 
United States should continue to steer the tropical cyclone to the 
west-northwest then turning more northwest after 24 h as the storm 
rounds the ridge. On this track, Edouard should make landfall later 
today near the Louisiana/Texas border, and then push inland over 
eastern Texas by tonight. The track guidance remains in good 
agreement, though with just a slight westward shift, and the NHC 
track forecast is just a touch west of the previous advisory, 
closest to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA).
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Edouard is expected to strengthen and it could approach hurricane
strength before it reaches the northwest Gulf Coast later today.
Tropical Storm conditions are expected along the northwest Gulf
Coast with hurricane conditions possible from High Island to
Cameron.
 
2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from High Island, Texas to
the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana where peak values of
3 to 5 feet above ground level are possible along the immediate
coast within the warning area.
 
3. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through
east-central Texas into far Southwest Louisiana today and
tomorrow as Tropical Storm Edouard tracks inland. Flash flooding is
likely across this region, especially in urban areas. River flooding
may also be possible.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 29.0N  92.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 29.7N  93.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...ON THE COAST
 24H  02/0600Z 30.6N  95.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  02/1800Z 31.7N  95.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin