Remnants of Dolly

000
WTNT44 KNHC 281446
TCDAT4
 
Remnants Of Dolly Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042026
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 28 2026

During the past few hours, the center of Dolly passed just north of 
NOAA buoy 41041, which did not observe any westerly winds. 
Examination of high-resolution satellite imagery also does not 
readily indicate any westerly winds south of the center.  Based on 
this, Dolly has become an open tropical wave, with the initial and 
forecast positions being that of the vorticity maximum. The initial 
intensity remains 35 kt, with those winds occurring north of the 
vorticity center.

The system is moving 280/22 kt, and this motion should continue for 
the next 24 h.  After that time, a general westward to west- 
northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed should 
take the remnants of Dolly near the Leeward Island Saturday night or 
Sunday, and near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Sunday 
afternoon or Sunday night. A continued west-northwestward motion is 
expected after that, with the remnants moving through the Greater 
Antilles or the Bahamas during the early part of next week.

The system is currently in a hostile environment with significant 
southwesterly shear and dry air. These conditions should continue 
for at least the next 2-3 days, and the remnants should slowly 
weaken during this time. The official forecast shows 24 h of points 
where the maximum winds are at tropical-storm force and there is a 
well-defined vorticity center. After that, the winds are expected to 
decrease below 35 kt, and the system center is expected to become 
less well-defined. Some global models hint at the possibility that 
Dolly could regenerate in several days, but at this time there is 
poor agreement on where and when this might occur. Should conditions 
warrant, further information regarding the potential redevelopment 
of the remnants of Dolly will be provided in subsequent Tropical 
Weather Outlooks.

This is the last advisory on Dolly issued by the National Hurricane 
Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High 
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS 
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Heavy rains from the remnants of Dolly could affect the Leeward 
Islands late Saturday into Sunday with possible impacts in the 
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday.  This 
heavy rain may produce flash flooding within areas of higher terrain 
of the Leeward Islands.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/1500Z 15.0N  46.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  29/0000Z 15.6N  50.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  29/1200Z 16.4N  54.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven