Tropical Depression Fay

000
WTNT41 KNHC 261438
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
300 PM GMT Sat Sep 26 2026
 
Fay has not changed significantly since the previous update. The 
tropical cyclone is clearly still being impacted by both wind shear 
and dry air. The most recent TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate was 
T2.0/30 kt, and the objective intensity estimate is in the range of 
31-41 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been held at 30 kt 
for this advisory.  

The cyclone continues to drift towards the west-southwest, at  250/4 
kt. A more southerly turn is expected as Fay continues move into the 
southern flank of the subtropical Atlantic high. By early next week, 
most of the guidance has the depression turning westward due to the 
large-scale easterly flow. However there is a bit of uncertainty in 
the precise timing of this turn. The current NHC forecast track is 
similar to the previous one with some minor adjustments based on the 
HCCA forecast aid. 

There is a high level of uncertainty in the intensity forecast as 
Fay remains over an area of favorably warm sea-surface temperatures, 
but vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air will likely continue 
to hinder the system, preventing a more organized structure from 
developing. Convection is likely to continue pulsing but the current 
NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous one showing 
little change in strength with only minor adjustments made. This 
forecast continues to maintain Fay as a tropical depression until it 
becomes post-tropical and dissipates by the middle of next week.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 29.6N  44.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 29.5N  44.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 28.8N  44.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 27.9N  44.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 26.8N  44.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  29/0000Z 25.4N  45.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 24.2N  46.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 23.0N  50.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Papin