Tropical Storm Lowell

000
WTPA44 PHFO 310237
TCDCP4
 
Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  14
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sun Aug 30 2026
 
Lowell's convective organization has changed little during the past 
several hours. Moderate easterly vertical wind shear continues to 
displace the bulk of the deep convection over and west of the 
low-level circulation center. With little change in the satellite 
presentation, a blend of an earlier scatterometer pass, the latest 
objective intensity estimates, and the subjective Dvorak intensity 
estimates from HFO and JTWC supports holding the initial intensity 
at 45 kt.
 
The initial motion is 270/10 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge north of 
the cyclone should remain the primary steering influence during the 
next couple of days, resulting in a continued westward motion. The 
track guidance remains in relatively good agreement through about 60 
h. Thereafter, considerable cross-track spread persists among the 
guidance as Lowell gradually slows and begins to turn 
west-northwestward. Some of this spread may be due to the potential 
influence of Hurricane Karina to the northeast on Lowell's steering 
flow, as well as differences in how the models depict a mid- to 
upper-level trough northwest of the Hawaiian Islands and the 
resulting weakness in the subtropical ridge. The HCCA and Google 
DeepMind ensemble mean remain along the southern side of the 
guidance envelope through day 5, while several other models favor a 
more northwestward track along the northern side of the guidance 
envelope. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged 
from the previous advisory and lies near the HCCA, Google DeepMind 
ensemble mean (GDMI), and simple consensus (TVCN).

Moderate easterly vertical wind shear of around 20 kt continues to 
affect Lowell and should temper the rate of strengthening in the 
short term. The shear is forecast to decrease during the next 12 to 
24 h while the cyclone remains over warm waters, which should allow 
Lowell to become better organized and begin strengthening. A faster 
rate of intensification is forecast between 24 and 72 h as 
environmental conditions become more favorable. Thereafter, the 
intensity is forecast to level off around 96 h. The latest NHC 
intensity forecast is essentially an update of the previous 
forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/0300Z 13.2N 143.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  31/1200Z 13.1N 144.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 13.2N 146.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 13.4N 148.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 13.7N 150.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  02/1200Z 13.9N 152.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 14.2N 154.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 15.0N 157.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 15.7N 159.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs