Tropical Storm Pena

000
WTPA44 PHFO 111436
TCDCP4
 
Tropical Storm Pena Discussion Number  20
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP042026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Wed Nov 11 2026
 
Pena continues to maintain a marginal amount of convection near the 
center and to the north during the last several hours. The cyclone 
continues to appear very disorganized with the most recent 
subjective Dvorak fixes from both JTWC and HFO at T2.5/35 kt, while 
the UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates are in the range of 30-51 
kt. Therefore, the initial intensity for Pena has been held at 40 kt 
for this advisory.
 
Pena's motion is estimated to be 250/8 kt. The storm is currently 
being steered by a high pressure ridge centered over the subtropical 
Central Pacific. This high should cause Pena to  accelerate westward 
over the next couple of days. The current NHC track forecast is 
similar to the previous one with some minor adjustments to nudge the 
track southward. These adjustments are based on a blend of the GDMI 
and the HCCA forecast aids.  
 
While Pena is over very warm waters with a good amount of 
environmental moisture, the cyclone is still being negatively 
affected by some westerly shear that is undercutting it. The current 
model guidance suggests that the environment will not change much 
for the next day or so, thus the current NHC intensity forecast 
keeps the storm at the same strength for the next 24 h. After which, 
a small increase in shear and a decrease in moisture should take 
hold by Thursday, which in turn should allow for weakening to occur. 
With the unfavorable factors persisting over the system and its 
increasing forward speed, it could dissipate within a few days. 
Generally, the current NHC intensity forecast is mostly the same as 
the previous forecast, except for a small adjustment to weaken the 
storm sooner at 48 h. This forecast is in good agreement with the 
majority of the current guidance, including the GDMI and HCCA 
forecast aids. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/1500Z  9.9N 167.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 10.0N 169.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 10.2N 172.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 10.5N 175.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  13/1200Z 10.8N 178.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  14/0000Z 10.9N 178.4E   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi