Hurricane Lowell

000
WTPA44 PHFO 081449
TCDCP4
 
Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  50
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Tue Sep 08 2026

Lowell is quickly weakening.  Satellite images indicate that the 
center is exposed on the southern side of a decreasing area of deep 
convection.  While recent flight-level aircraft wind data did not 
show much weakening aloft, dropsondes suggested that these high 
winds were not making it to the surface as typical, probably due to 
the lack of local convection.  The initial wind speed is set to 80 
kt, a compromise of higher aircraft data and lower satellite fixes 
from JTWC and HFO.  

The hurricane is moving quickly northward at about 16 kt.  Lowell 
should gradually turn westward and slow down during the next couple 
of days as the mid- to upper-level trough steering the hurricane 
weakens and a mid-level ridge to builds in to the north.  At 
long-range, another trough is forecast to interact with Lowell, 
which could cause it to accelerate to the northwest.  The new track 
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, close to the 
latest Google DeepMind and HCCA aids.  

Lowell should continue to quickly weaken today due to high shear, 
likely becoming a tropical storm by the evening.  A slow weakening 
is expected then through late week due to marginally warm waters and 
some shear, and Lowell could be close to becoming a post-tropical 
cyclone on Friday.  However, the next trough could re-energize the 
deep convection, with a fair number of models showing modest 
re-strengthening over the weekend.  The new forecast is reduced in 
the short term due to the poor initial structure, then is blended 
with the previous one.  The end of the forecast should be considered 
very uncertain given the aforementioned trough interaction.   
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Kauai County: Hurricane conditions will continue for the next few 
hours, with the highest winds atop mountains and on windward and 
leeward slopes, causing widespread power outages.  If you use a 
generator, be sure it is placed at least 20 feet away from doors, 
windows, and garages to avoid deadly carbon monoxide poisoning.
 
2. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell will 
continue over the Hawaiian Islands through Wednesday. This may 
produce significant flash flooding and mudslides, especially across 
Kauai county and portions of the Big Island.
 
3. Oahu: Tropical storm conditions are expected for the next few 
hours. Strong wind gusts could cause downed trees and power outages, 
especially in areas of higher terrain.
 
4. Large waves will continue to produce life-threatening surf and 
rip current conditions during the next day or so along exposed 
coasts of the Hawaiian Islands.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 23.7N 160.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 25.8N 160.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 27.7N 161.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 28.6N 164.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 28.6N 166.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  11/0000Z 28.0N 169.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 28.0N 170.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 29.3N 171.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  13/1200Z 32.5N 174.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Blake