Hurricane Lowell

000
WTPA44 PHFO 082033
TCDCP4
 
Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  51
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Tue Sep 08 2026

Lowell's structure has significantly degraded during the day, with 
the center exposed on the southern side of the circulation, well 
removed from a disheveled area of deep convection.  Satellite
estimates are basically falling as fast as the Dvorak rules (or 
continuity) allow, and the initial intensity is set to 65 kt as a 
blend of all the data.  A scatterometer pass should be available for 
the next advisory to see how much weakening has actually occurred.  

The hurricane is still moving northward, now at about 13 kt. Model 
guidance is in better agreement during the next couple of days on 
Lowell bending leftward and slowing down, turning westward on 
Thursday.  This evolution is due to the current mid-tropospheric 
trough over the Central Pacific weakening as a mid-level ridge to 
builds in to the north.  A faster northwest motion is expected on 
Friday as Lowell interacts with another mid-latitude trough, though 
the model spread grows by the weekend.  The new forecast is close to 
the previous forecast, on the southerly side of the guidance 
envelope,  but isn't particularly confident due to the trough 
interaction.

A continued slow weakening of Lowell is anticipated for the next 
several days while the system moves over marginally warm SSTs, 
within a dry, moderate shear environment.  The system will likely 
struggle to produce deep convection by Thursday, and Lowell could 
be close to becoming a post-tropical cyclone on Friday.  However, 
the next trough will probably re-energize the deep convection and 
cause a slight re-strengthening over the weekend.  The only 
NHC forecast change of note is that much of the guidance is showing 
Lowell either as frontal or without convection by day 5, so 
post-tropical is indicated then.  Similar to the track forecast, 
the intensity forecast is uncertain at the end.  
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Post-storm safety:  Follow advice of local officials and avoid
areas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are 
properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from 
dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During 
clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink 
plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.
 
2. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Lowell will linger 
over the eastern Hawaiian Islands through Wednesday. This may 
produce areas of flooding for urban and low-lying regions, with 
significant flash flooding and mudslides possible across portions of 
the Big Island.
 
3. Large waves will continue to produce life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions during the next day or so along exposed
coasts of the Hawaiian Islands.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 25.1N 160.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 26.8N 161.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 28.4N 162.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 28.9N 165.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 28.6N 168.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  11/0600Z 28.3N 170.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 28.6N 171.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 31.0N 172.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  13/1800Z 32.5N 174.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Blake