Hurricane Lowell

507 
WTPA44 PHFO 062047
TCDCP4
 
Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  43
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is currently
investigating Lowell and on their first pass through the eye found
that the central pressure has risen to 948 mb. The highest 700-mb
flight-level wind so far is 109 kt. Satellite images show that the
eye has grown in size this morning and is now about 30 n mi in
diameter. Based on the rise in pressure and the flight-level winds
measured on this and the previous mission, the initial intensity is
now set at 105 kt.
 
Lowell has turned toward the north with an estimated motion of
350/5 kt. The steering continues to be dominated by a cutoff
mid-/upper-level low located north-northeast of Hawaii, which is
forecast to move west-southwestward and cause Lowell to accelerate
toward the north and north-northeast through Monday night. The
track guidance has shifted a bit to the east again, and the
typically better-performing HCCA and GDMI models as well as HAFS-A
and -B lie along the eastern edge of the envelope. The NHC official
forecast has also been nudged eastward to account for recent model
trends. The wind risk for Kauai and Niihau has trended upward based
on the latest track and size forecast, with the 50-kt wind radii now
crossing Niihau in about 36 hours. Accounting for the potential
of additional eastward shifts, as well as the terrain, there 
is an increasing chance of gusts to hurricane force on those 
islands.
 
After the center passes the Hawaiian Islands, model guidance is in
good agreement that Lowell will turn westward by early Friday,
but there is some disagreement on the sharpness of that turn.
 
Lowell's intensity is expected to remain fairly steady for the next 
12 hours before south-southwesterly shear increases. Gradual 
weakening should begin by tonight, and the NHC intensity forecast 
has generally been adjusted toward the latest IVCN, HCCA, and GDMI 
guidance. Lowell is now expected to weaken to a tropical storm by 
early Wednesday, after passing the Hawaiian Islands, due to the 
effects of continued shear and dry air. Some models are even 
suggesting that Lowell could lose deep convection and become 
post-tropical by day 5, but since there is a lot of uncertainty, the 
official forecast continues to keep tropical status through the 
forecast period.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Lowell's center is forecast to pass just west of Kauai County 
late Monday into early Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in 
effect for Kauai County, including Kauai and Niihau, where tropical 
storm conditions are expected to begin Monday afternoon and 
continue through Tuesday morning. Wind gusts to hurricane force 
are possible atop mountains and on windward and leeward slopes.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Lowell will begin to impact the 
Hawaiian Islands today and continue through early this week. Periods 
of heavy rain may produce significant flash flooding and mudslides, 
especially across Kauai County and portions of the Big Island.
 
3. Large swells from Lowell are expected to produce life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions across portions of the Hawaiian
Islands during the next several days. Surf along exposed portions
of Kauai County could produce coastal flooding and inundation of 
low-lying areas Monday through Monday night.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 15.2N 163.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 16.3N 163.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 18.5N 162.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 21.4N 161.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 24.2N 161.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  09/0600Z 26.4N 162.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 27.6N 163.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 28.0N 167.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 27.9N 170.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg