Hurricane Lowell

000
WTPA44 PHFO 060857
TCDCP4
 
Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  41
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sat Sep 05 2026

Lowell remains an impressive hurricane, with a warm and well-defined 
eye surrounded by a generally symmetric eyewall. However, infrared 
imagery shows some warming of the cloud tops within portions of the 
eyewall. Recent microwave imagery also shows some hints of an outer 
eyewall-like feature, although it currently appears more like a 
convective band and is not sufficiently organized to confirm that an 
eyewall replacement cycle is beginning. Subjective Dvorak Current 
Intensity estimates range from 5.5 from JTWC to 6.0 from HFO, 
corresponding to 102 to 115 kt, while objective intensity estimates 
generally range from 100 to 120 kt. Based on a blend of these 
estimates and the gradual weakening trend, the initial intensity is 
lowered to 110 kt for this advisory, making Lowell a Category 3 
hurricane.
 
Lowell continues to gain latitude and has begun to make its
anticipated turn, with an initial motion of 325/4 kt. A cutoff upper
low north of the Hawaiian Islands will continue southwestward during
the next couple of days. As Lowell becomes increasingly influenced
by this feature, the hurricane should turn northward on Sunday and
then north-northeastward while accelerating Sunday night and Monday.
The latest track guidance has shifted slightly eastward, but remains
in generally good agreement on the overall evolution of Lowell's
motion. The NHC track forecast has also been shifted slightly
eastward and represents a blend of the previous forecast, the simple
and multi-model consensus aids TVCN and HCCA, and the Google
DeepMind ensemble mean. After passing west of the main Hawaiian
Islands, Lowell is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest and
slow as weak ridging builds to the north of the cyclone.
 
Some fluctuations in intensity remain possible in the short term due 
to potential inner-core structural changes. However, the overall 
trend is expected to be toward continued weakening. The environment 
should remain generally favorable through early Sunday, but 
deep-layer vertical wind shear is forecast to increase markedly 
during the 24- to 48-h period as Lowell turns northward and then  
north-northeastward and accelerates. Increasing dry mid-level air 
should also become entrained into the circulation during this time. 
These hostile environmental conditions are expected to result in a 
faster rate of weakening by Monday night and Tuesday. Despite the 
expected weakening, Lowell is forecast to remain a powerful 
hurricane when it passes west of Kauai County Monday night and 
across portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. 
Thereafter, strong vertical wind shear, drier air, and progressively 
cooler waters should result in continued weakening. The NHC 
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and generally 
lies within the middle to upper end of the intensity guidance 
envelope.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Lowell is forecast to pass west of Kauai County late Monday into
early Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Kauai
County, including Kauai and Niihau, where tropical storm conditions
are possible beginning Monday. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals, where hurricane conditions are
possible beginning Monday.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell will begin to 
impact the Hawaiian Islands Sunday afternoon and continue through 
early next week. Periods of heavy rain may produce significant flash 
flooding and mudslides, especially on Kauai and portions of the Big 
Island.
 
3. Large swells from Lowell are expected to produce life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions across portions of the Hawaiian
Islands during the next several days. Surf along exposed portions
of Kauai County could also produce coastal flooding and inundation
of low-lying areas Monday through Monday night.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 14.1N 163.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 14.8N 163.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 16.3N 163.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 18.5N 163.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 21.4N 162.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  08/1800Z 24.1N 162.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 25.7N 162.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 27.2N 165.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  11/0600Z 27.5N 170.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs